Q1'24 trading update: EBIT -13% vs cons

Downgrades sober the spot price party

Quality downgrades partly offset stronger spot prices, so our Q1 estimates are up only 3% ahead of the trading updates. Consensus a tad optimistic – we are still 6% below on Q1 EBIT.

Expect a soft Q1 trading update

We expect clean EBIT of EUR 232m, -16% vs. consensus. Key risk is price realisation amid downgrades overload. Valuation support at '24e P/E of 12x; BUY, TP NOK 229.

Norway: Updated traffic lights suggest lower growth

Return of extra DPS, now keep'em coming

We keep our '24-'25 estimates largely unchanged. Another record year in the making amid strong outlook. '24e P/E at 11x, a 15% discount to peers and 7-8% yield: BUY.

Q4: DPS of NOK 1.9 (+36% vs. cons 1.4)

One step forward, one step back

Higher salmon prices as biology goes from bad to worse, but muted '24e EBIT impact; flipside is volumes down and costs up. The playing field is changing, but we remain sector BUYers.

Remains our sector top-pick

Expecting clean Q4 EBIT of EUR 203m, as pre-announced. '24e EBIT slightly down on lower volumes from soft biology. Sector top-pick at '24e P/E of ~12x (5Y-avg. 16x): BUY.

Negative preliminary view from European Commission on anti-trust inves...

Q4'23 trading update: EBIT +4% vs. cons

Reported Q4'23 EBIT +4% vs cons (+8% vs ABGSCe), driven by positive margins in Norway, as volumes were lower than expected. A positive trading update and positive read into cons '24e EBIT

Soft trading update expected

We expect clean EBIT of EUR 188m, 16% below FactSet cons. Biological issues continue across regions, hurting volumes and costs but suggest a tighter market. Concerns reflected in the share - BUY

Norway: Best Ideas Q4'23

Best ideas are; AKRBP, MOWI, STB, 2020, BONH, DOFG, ENTRA, ELMRA and KOMPL

Value chain integration proving its worth

We keep our '23-24 estimates largely unchanged. MOWI's value chain integration proving its worth. Running out of reasons not to BUY, TP NOK 231 (229).

Q3: ‘24e guidance in line, and tax guided lower

Recent weakness offers a second chance

Market fundamentals look better than we feared, but sector is down 8% and consensus is now more aligned with us. We thus see improved risk/reward at '23e-24e P/E of 15-12x.

A second bite at the cherry

Expecting clean Q3 EBIT of EUR 203m, as pre-announced. We keep our '23e-'24e EBIT relatively unchanged. Sector top-pick at '24e P/E of ~11x (5Y-avg. 16x): BUY.

Scotland: Deep-dive beneath the surface

An extensive study of Scotland as a farming region. Operational turnarounds are viable, but likely to take time. We continue to favour MOWI and SSF (SALM/LSG JV) over BAKKA.

Q3'23 trading update: EBIT -11% vs. cons

Reported Q3'23 EBIT -11% vs cons (-13% vs ABGSCe), driven mostly by weaker margins in most regions ex. Norway, as well as slightly lower volumes. In all, a somewhat negative trading update with expected est. changes to cons' FY'23e EBIT in a range of 2-5%

We are BUYers into the Q3 trading update

We expect a clean Q3 EBIT of EUR 232m, 1% below FactSet cons. Looking beyond Q3, we are now less concerned by the short-term supply growth potential, which coupled with an improving sentiment and an attractive valuation makes us remain BUYers of MOWI.

Sentiment is turning

We keep our '23-24 estimates fairly unchanged. Capitalises on a diversified setup. Approaching the inflection point: BUY, TP NOK 224.