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ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+6)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q3'24: Lower oil price

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q2'24: tighter oil market ahead

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 26 June

In our 26 June Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth

Estimates down on lowered production assumptions

Q1 figures broadly as expected. Export terminal delay lowers production assumptions. Short-term liquidity risk prevails.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth

Focus will be on production growth

Estimates up on higher oil price assumptions. The market's focus will be on production growth. High upside if delivering on estimates. BUY.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth

Management must prove the market wrong

Weak production guidance raises liquidity and covenant concerns in '24. Management needs to deliver to regain market's trust. We cut our TP to NOK 8 (20).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth

A bump in the road

Weather events hurt production and will likely lead to liquidity low-point around YE'23. Still only in the beginning of a long growth phase.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth

On the right path

Trading update in line, minor changes ahead of Q3. Focus heading into '24: Further production growth and improved pricing. Attractive valuation and short-term multiples: BUY.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

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