The Capital Goods Data Miner - March 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Saab, Wärtsilä.

One-offs - they rarely stop at one ('24 update)

Exceptional situations pass, new ones arise. XO items in 2023 a new record, 8% of adj. EBITA. Consistently low charges in NIBE, HPOL, ATCO, EPI, KONE.

Rosengren retires, Wierod to take over

The Capital Goods Data Miner - February 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Wärtsilä.

Feedback from sell-side call

Capital Goods: Post-Q4 Update

Outside of construction, most end-markets were solid, pricing and margins held up, and cash flow was strong. We think Alfa Laval, SKF and Volvo look attractive in H1’24.

Higher forecasts on positive outlook

Q4'23 op. EBITA 3-4% above expectations. Looking for ~5% organic growth and margin expansion in '24e. We raise op. EBITA by 4% in '24e-'25e, keep HOLD.

Q4 fast comment

Q4e: Some cyclical upside realised, some left

Earnings hold up on big backlogs; PMIs have turned, but only slowly. Meanwhile, stocks have bounced, multiples back to normal. We favour Alfa Laval, Epiroc, Metso, SKF and Volvo.

Slowing growth, but margins to hold up

Q4'23 results due on 1 February at 7:00 CET. Continued order slowdown, margins still at very good levels. '23e Op. EBITA revised up 1%, down 3-4% on '24e-'25e partly on FX.

The Capital Goods Data Miner – January 2024

Our key long ideas are:Alfa Laval, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on:Autoliv, Kone,Wärtsilä.

The Capital Goods Data Miner – December 2023

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Epiroc, Kone, Wärtsilä.

New targets in line with expectations

The Capital Goods Data Miner - November 2023

Our key long ideas are Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on Autoliv, Epiroc, Wärtsilä.

New targets expected at CMD

ABB to host Capital Markets Day in Italy on 30 November. We expect new targets: 4-7% org growth & 16-19% op EBITA margin. Stock trading close to fair value, keep HOLD.

Capital Goods: Q3 trends, ests., valuation, top picks

Q3 again showed stronger margins, but slightly lower orders. Aggregate adj. EBIT’23-25 was unchanged. Sandvik, SKF and Volvo are top picks.

Faster than expected growth deceleration

Q3'23 op. EBITA 2% below expectations. Guides for faster than expected growth deceleration in Q4. We lower op. EBITA by 1-2% in '23e-'24e, keep HOLD.

A touch weak on most lines

Q3e: Controlled slowdown as sentiment bottoms out

Gently slowing demand, strong margins; estimates unchanged. Valuation now 10% lower than history, just as PMI's appear to bottom out. Look for short-cycle value, top picks Sandvik, SKF, Volvo.

Book to bill to come down to ~1x

Q3'23 results due on 18 October at 7:00 CET. Further order slowdown, margins still at very good levels. '23e Op. EBITA up by 1%, down 3-4% on '24e-'25e partly on FX.