Q1 beat from Shimano

Q1 likely not enough of a trigger

Primarily negative data points during Q1, we estimate 5% organic growth. Although bike recovers, we trim estimates by 1-5%. At 51x 2024e EV/EBIT despite 33% growth we stick to HOLD.

Big miss from Halfords today

Fox Factory share plummeted on weak 2024 guidance

Weak 2024 guidance from Shimano

Signalling values outpacing a weak Q4

Another miss in Q4 overshadowed by bike comments. '24e EBIT -11%, '25e +5% as we see strong recovery & better ASP. Expectations are high for a quick comeback, and so is the valuation; HOLD.

Big miss again in Q4

Still too early to become bullish

Bike yet to recover; we estimate H2'24e into 2025 bike season. USD exposure main reason for estimate cuts, 2024-25e EBIT -6%. Reiterate HOLD and TP of SEK 300, neutral risk/reward over Q4.

US sports retailers challenges remain

No dramatic decline in retail inventory levels

We cut 2024e EBIT by -28%

Bike market remains challenging, but moto and safety also missed. We expect a slower recovery in 2024, EBIT -16-28% in 2023e-'25e. Near-term risks high and valuation not attractive enough; HOLD.

Big miss on sales and vague recovery guidance

Near-term risk on the downside

Comps are getting easy from Q3e, but we see no quick recovery. Near-term momentum at risk and multiples remain high. We like it longer-term, but stick to HOLD, TP SEK 400 (475).

Strenghtening the moat

Putting its faith in Q4

Q2 miss and guidance downgrade for H2. EBIT cut by 15-37% and risk on H2e in our view. Long-term interesting but at 43x '24e EV/EBIT; we stick to HOLD.

Another miss on lowered estimates

Last quarter with bike headwinds y-o-y

We lower expectations for Q2, organic growth of -35% (-20%). H2e to show significant growth on easy comps, but low visibility. Long-term attractive but short-term tougher: HOLD.

Recovery around the corner

One more quarter of neg. organic growth left in Q2e. We reduce 2023e EBIT by -12% and 2024e-'25e by 4-5%. We stick to HOLD, TP of SEK 510, at 61x EV/EBIT in 2023e.

Bike decline caused big miss in Q1, again

No quick Q1 recovery, but we have growth in '23

Scalability works both ways,: neg . organic growth in Q1 as well. Estimates down 2-5%, but getting closer to trough. Long-term story solid, near-term looks weak; we reiterate HOLD.