Recovery ahead of expectations

We raise adj. EBITA by 2-3% on stronger DM recovery. Autodesk transition underway, and M&A should continue. We stick to BUY, TP SEK 130 (120).

US ABI improved in February

Autodesk Q4 and FY'25 guidance above expectations

US ABI remains <50 in January

Quicker recovery than expected

DM beat expectations and set the tone for 2024e growth. Adj. EBITA +2-4%, quality compounder at an attractive valuation. We stick to BUY, TP SEK 120 (100).

Q4 beat and quicker recovery, stock up

Set to improve from here

US ABI remained weak during Q4, but that's in estimates already. -9% Q4e organic growth, yet to incorporate Autodesk's changes. Adj. EBITA -1-3% on FX, we stick to BUY, TP SEK 100.

Earn-outs: In the end, cash trumps EPS

Earn-outs: 0.6x of ND/EBITDA, and 25% of FCF, limited EPS impact (1-2%), but notable company deviations, FCF and debt impact more important than the earnings fluctuations.

Estimates holding up well

No changes to 2023-25e adj. EBITA after a slightly better Q3. More cost reductions could surprise positively on Q4e earnings. Attractive valuation and estimates holding up: BUY.

Solid P&L but weak cash flow

MUM Q3 a positive data point

Sharp fall in US ABI in line with our estimates

Supplier expectations provide upside potential

Weak H2e coming, but still lots to like

DM faces a tough H2e, but PLM and PM looks solid, while the share drop has almost eliminated the full value of DM. TP to SEK 100 (120) on lower peer multiples - stick to BUY.

US ABI index holding up better than performance

Attractive entry point after the drop

Negative organic growth in H2e on tough comps & slowdown. Adj. EBITA -1-2%, a few earnings decline quarters ahead. Expectations and share have reset, 14.4x '24e EV/EBITA: BUY.

Design Management declined as estimated

The cat is out of the bag, earlier than we feared

We reduce 2023e adj. EBITA by -18%, 2024e by -9%. Addnode is cyclical, -32% share price reaction is an overreaction. We lower the TP to SEK 120 (155) and stick to BUY.

Q2 PW: adj. EBITA -34% vs cons

We stick to BUY after Team D3 acquisition

Adj. EBITA +9% from Team D3, FX adds another 2%. Organic growth to slow in H2e but earnings growth remains solid. Balance sheet leverage