Q1 trading update: Volumes 18% above

Q4’23 volumes were 16% below consensus, farming cost/kg was above ABGSCe, and we thus see significant downside risk to Q4e and FY'23e EBIT

Headwinds to continue over Q1

We expect EBIT of NOK 199m, -28% vs consensus. Key risk is prices amid downgrades and weak biology. Tides to turn; '24e-'25e P/E 14x-9x. BUY, TP NOK 75.

Downgrades sober the spot price party

Quality downgrades partly offset stronger spot prices, so our Q1 estimates are up only 3% ahead of the trading updates. Consensus a tad optimistic – we are still 6% below on Q1 EBIT.

Norway: Updated traffic lights suggest lower growth

Ripping off the band-aid

'24e EBIT (core) -22% on volume cut and higher costs. Significant growth potential once biology normalises, and it can't get much worse. Risk/reward is positive. BUY.

Q4: Soft EBIT and guidance

One step forward, one step back

Higher salmon prices as biology goes from bad to worse, but muted '24e EBIT impact; flipside is volumes down and costs up. The playing field is changing, but we remain sector BUYers.

Another bleak quarter

We expect Q4'23e EBIT of NOK -58m (FactSet cons. NOK 49m). '24e EBIT is down on lower volumes and farming margins, but we reiterate BUY due to '24e P/E of 10x and potential upside in Canada divestment.

Negative preliminary view from European Commission on anti-trust inves...

Q4 trading update: Volumes 16% below

Q4’23 volumes were 16% below consensus, farming cost/kg was above ABGSCe, and we thus see significant downside risk to Q4e and FY'23e EBIT

Storm is not over

'23e-24e EBIT (core) -8%-9% on lower volumes and higher costs. Still not out of the woods, but biology should gradually improve. '24e P/E at 10x screens well, but limited triggers ahead.

Weak Q3 and guidance, seeks Canada partner

Recent weakness offers a second chance

Market fundamentals look better than we feared, but sector is down 8% and consensus is now more aligned with us. We thus see improved risk/reward at '23e-24e P/E of 15-12x.

Murphy's law

Q3'23e EBIT of NOK -79m (FactSet cons . NOK -19m). '23e/'24e EBIT little changed; higher margins offset by vols. Elevated bio. risk short-term, but priced in at '24e P/E of 8x.

Q3 trading update: Volumes 16% above, but higher costs

Q3’23 volumes were 16% above consensus, but farming cost/kg was well above company guidance, and we thus see downside risk to Q3e and FY'23e EBIT

Likely to get worse before it gets better

Q2: EBIT 9% above, vol. guidance down 3%

Approaching the inflection point

Sector down 12% on weak spot-price sentiment since May. Some potential negative data points left, but set to turn in H2, and largely reflected with sector at '23e-'24e P/E of 15-12x. Our sector top-pick remains Mowi.

Tough H2 incoming

We estimate Q2 EBIT of NOK 459m (-9% vs FactSet cons.). '23e-'24e EBIT -16% on shrinking margins and lower volumes. Not for the faint-hearted, but '24e P/E at 8x looks appealing. BUY.

Q2 trading update: Volumes 6% above