Q1'24 trading update: EBIT -13% vs cons

Q1 trading update: Volumes 12% above

Q1 trading update: Volumes 18% above

Q4’23 volumes were 16% below consensus, farming cost/kg was above ABGSCe, and we thus see significant downside risk to Q4e and FY'23e EBIT

Q1 trading update: Volumes 5% below

Headwinds to continue over Q1

We expect EBIT of NOK 199m, -28% vs consensus. Key risk is prices amid downgrades and weak biology. Tides to turn; '24e-'25e P/E 14x-9x. BUY, TP NOK 75.

Downgrades sober the spot price party

Quality downgrades partly offset stronger spot prices, so our Q1 estimates are up only 3% ahead of the trading updates. Consensus a tad optimistic – we are still 6% below on Q1 EBIT.

Expect a soft Q1 trading update

We expect clean EBIT of EUR 232m, -16% vs. consensus. Key risk is price realisation amid downgrades overload. Valuation support at '24e P/E of 12x; BUY, TP NOK 229.

Challenges in Q1, but a relative winner

We expect EBIT of NOK 1,899m, +4% vs consensus. Relatively high VAP capacity, but downgrades will still hurt. +20% YTD and '24e-'25e P/E of 17x-15x gives more muted r/r.

Trading update to show downside risk to Q1

We expect EBIT of NOK 783m, -6% vs consensus. Key risk is prices (i.e., downgrade share and trout volume). Attractive at '24e-'25e P/E of 10x-9x. BUY, TP of NOK 59.

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

Norway: Updated traffic lights suggest lower growth

Narrative is changing

'24e EBIT +1% as raised VAP margins offset wild catch. Turning a corner; improvements gradually kicking in. '24e-25e P/E 10x-9x; BUY reiterated, TP of NOK 59 (57).

Q4: 16% EBIT beat and higher DPS

Ripping off the band-aid

'24e EBIT (core) -22% on volume cut and higher costs. Significant growth potential once biology normalises, and it can't get much worse. Risk/reward is positive. BUY.

Q4: Soft EBIT and guidance

Comes out dry, even when it's raining

'24e EBIT down 4% on temporary issues in North. Best-in-class farmer with significant growth potential. Warranted premium to peers; BUY, TP of NOK 687 (645).

Q4: DPS +80% vs. cons, but softer guidance

Return of extra DPS, now keep'em coming

We keep our '24-'25 estimates largely unchanged. Another record year in the making amid strong outlook. '24e P/E at 11x, a 15% discount to peers and 7-8% yield: BUY.

Q4: DPS of NOK 1.9 (+36% vs. cons 1.4)

One step forward, one step back

Higher salmon prices as biology goes from bad to worse, but muted '24e EBIT impact; flipside is volumes down and costs up. The playing field is changing, but we remain sector BUYers.