Too early to get excited

Residential rebound on the cards. GP margins not high enough to reach 2026 targets. Late-cyclical share price, we remain at HOLD.

2026 targets require a quick rebound

Solid Q4, and recapitalisation is now behind us. Low absolute earnings, large % est. changes. Remain at HOLD, TP SEK 10 (15).

Right issue terms are here

Solid report and new targets

Q4e miss followed by rights issue terms

We are ~8-15% below consensus on Q4'23e. Terms for the rights issue coming after the report. Lower interest rate expectations positive for volumes.

Rights issue coming up

Risk of covenant breach in 2024e

Fewer starts, lower earnings. Upcoming divestments likely not enough. Low valuation, wait for recapitalisation. HOLD.

Write-downs and discussions with lenders

Lack of visibility

No need to rush in

Adj. EBIT down 5-14% due to lower GP margins. EPS negative in 2023e-2025e. Equity ratio below target, HOLD, TP of SEK 20 (unch.)

Weak margin and lower starts

Wait for refinancing to clear

Norway divestment and pushed completions. Equity ratio to come below target, not reaching covenants. 2023e P/B at ~0.25x.

In need of capital

PW and a low number of starts in Q1. '24e-'25e sales estimates down ~15%. High risk of dilutive rights issue.

Starts below, estimates continue down

Q1'23 PW: Delayed completions

Risk of dilution ahead