NIM spread to peers to stay

Adj . PTP missed our expectations on higher costs , loan losses. Higher NII, trading & associates muted by costs. Dividend yield of ~9% compares well vs . peers: HOLD.

Norw. Savingsbanks - could be just soft today

Norwegian banks - Q4 sector preview

Sector trading at '24e-'25e P/Es of 8.5x and 9.1x, with abating NIM, and at '23e P/BV 1.2x with normalised ROE of ~14%, still attractive. Adj. EPS up for '24e, down for '25e; we prefer SVEG & MING.

Superior NIM could fall back faster than peers

Q4e: adj. PTP of NOK 758m, supported by +2% NII growth q-o-q. Changing rate path means wider lending margins & NIM. Good dividend yield, fundamentals well reflected in pricing: HOLD.

Norway: further consolidation in the P&C industry

Fremtind Forsikring (14.8%) intends to merge with Eika Forsikring (4%). New market share size of 18.8% (#3) should be acceptable for the competition authority. Likely to make the industry even more rational - positive.

Norwegian savings banks: Christmas gifts from the NFSA

Sp1 banks are allowed to establish "new" Sp1 Markets. Gains will be moved from Q1'24e to Q4'23e and add to dividend capacity. Prefer MING and SVEG in Norway on more attractive valuation.

Deposit margins well discounted in pricing

Q3: Deposit margins better than expected increase our estimates for '23e-'24e (NII), while costs mute '25e. Dividend yield compares well on '23e-'25e - HOLD.

Best NIM in 18 years, but share fairly valued

Q3e: NII driver behind the 42% growth in PTP. Adj. EPS down on changed interest rate path. Pricing now better reflects fundamentals - down to HOLD (Buy).

Estimates intact

Q2: in line with ABGSCe on adj. net profit. Estimates slightly down '23e-'24e (other income) but up '25e. Yield of 26% on '23e-'25e, and avg. ROE of 15.5% - BUY.

Norwegian banks: Further NII uplift

Sector trading at P/E'23e-'24e of 8.3x and 8.1x at a P/BV of 1.1x with ROE of ~14%. Adj. EPS up (higher interest rates) – expect further cons. uplift.

Continued NII uplift

Trading at P/E'23e-'24e 8.2x and 8.1x and P/NAV 1.23x with ROE of ~17%. Adj. EPS up (higher interest rates) – expect further cons. uplift. BUY.

Strongest ROE – up to BUY

Q1: +16% vs. ABGSCe on adj. net profit, write-backs & NII. Estimates up on NII and other income (acquisition). Yield of 27.5% '23e-'25e, and avg. ROE of 15.5% - BUY

Adj. PTP beat on NII and write-backs

Adj. net profit beat of +16% vs. ABGSCe, +9% vs. cons, driven by stronger NII and write-backs. Cons. 23e EPS rev. likely up 2-5%, less so for '24e-'25e

Norwegian banks: another strong quarter

Q1e: expect solid reports, but with a neutral risk/reward. Adj. EPS up (higher interest rates) — expect further cons. uplift. Trading in line with historical average — but record earnings

Very attractive ROE, but fairly valued

Q1e: NII +11% q-o-q. Adj. EPS up on higher interest rate path. The highest norm. RONAV (15.3%) vs. peers is priced in - HOLD.