Lending margins coming back

Q1e: NIM getting close to the peak. New interest rate path lifts '24e and '25e adj. EPS. In need of SOON synergies: HOLD.

NIM spread to peers to stay

Adj . PTP missed our expectations on higher costs , loan losses. Higher NII, trading & associates muted by costs. Dividend yield of ~9% compares well vs . peers: HOLD.

Awaiting the merger: HOLD

Adj. PTP +12% amid write-backs and better NII. EPS up +3% for '24e and +6% for '25e on higher NIM. Fair price on SR-Bank ahead of the merger: HOLD.

Investing for growth

Softer underlying PBLL saved by lower loan losses and capital gains. Adj. EPS up 6% and 3% amid higher NII & associates; costs mute. Norm. RONAV of 13% supports 1.4x P/NAV gives more upside: BUY.

Norw. Savingsbanks - could be just soft today

Norwegian banks - Q4 sector preview

Sector trading at '24e-'25e P/Es of 8.5x and 9.1x, with abating NIM, and at '23e P/BV 1.2x with normalised ROE of ~14%, still attractive. Adj. EPS up for '24e, down for '25e; we prefer SVEG & MING.

Strong CET1 should result in EO dividends

Q4e: adj. PTP of NOK 915m, supported by strong NII growth. Changing rate path means wider lending margins & NIM. We like the dividend yield of ~10.4% - BUY into the numbers.

Superior NIM could fall back faster than peers

Q4e: adj. PTP of NOK 758m, supported by +2% NII growth q-o-q. Changing rate path means wider lending margins & NIM. Good dividend yield, fundamentals well reflected in pricing: HOLD.

Synergies needed as top line peaks in '24e

Q4e: adj. PTP of NOK 1.3bn up ~30% y-o-y, but down 2% q-o-q. New interest rate path lifts '24e adj. EPS, but lowers '25e. Have to look for new synergies to get excited: HOLD.

New lending growth assumptions for 24e-25e

Q4e: PTP NOK 355m, short-term headwinds from increased costs. Lending growth refocus towards growth as part of a new bank. Shareholder value created in the merger with SRBNK - HOLD.

Norway: further consolidation in the P&C industry

Fremtind Forsikring (14.8%) intends to merge with Eika Forsikring (4%). New market share size of 18.8% (#3) should be acceptable for the competition authority. Likely to make the industry even more rational - positive.

Norwegian savings banks: Christmas gifts from the NFSA

Sp1 banks are allowed to establish "new" Sp1 Markets. Gains will be moved from Q1'24e to Q4'23e and add to dividend capacity. Prefer MING and SVEG in Norway on more attractive valuation.

Strong capital position gives attractive yields

Q3: Adj. PTP miss of 5% amid non-interest income and costs. Revise adj. EPS down as we expect tougher margin picture ahead. CET1 of 19.7% should give EO DPS in Q4, and we keep BUY.

Q3: Miss expectations on higher costs

Adj. PTP miss of 8% vs. ABGSCe, 10% vs. cons driven by higher personnel costs and non-interest driven income. Cons. '23e-25e EPS chg. down 2-4%, stock -2-5% today

Deposit margins well discounted in pricing

Q3: Deposit margins better than expected increase our estimates for '23e-'24e (NII), while costs mute '25e. Dividend yield compares well on '23e-'25e - HOLD.

Santa came early this year – down to HOLD

The merger news with SRBNK overshadowed a weaker Q3. We trim our estimates on lower lending growth and margins. ~70% of value creation & 38% of new bank is fair at 1.1x BV. Lower to HOLD, unchg TP.

Welcome Sparebank1 Sør-Norge next year

Q3 adj PTP +5% vs FactSet consensus and +24% vs ABGSCe. EPS up 7% for '23e (Q3 beat), -4% for '25e (share count). Attractive new combination at a fair price: HOLD.

A good combination for both

Best NIM in 18 years, but share fairly valued

Q3e: NII driver behind the 42% growth in PTP. Adj. EPS down on changed interest rate path. Pricing now better reflects fundamentals - down to HOLD (Buy).

Dividends could come earlier

Q3e: its CET1 looks very attractive for EO DPS. Estimates trimmed on changed interest rate path. BUY into its IRB transition at a discount - 20% upside.