Investing for growth

Softer underlying PBLL saved by lower loan losses and capital gains. Adj. EPS up 6% and 3% amid higher NII & associates; costs mute. Norm. RONAV of 13% supports 1.4x P/NAV gives more upside: BUY.

Norw. Savingsbanks - could be just soft today

Norwegian banks - Q4 sector preview

Sector trading at '24e-'25e P/Es of 8.5x and 9.1x, with abating NIM, and at '23e P/BV 1.2x with normalised ROE of ~14%, still attractive. Adj. EPS up for '24e, down for '25e; we prefer SVEG & MING.

Strong CET1 should result in EO dividends

Q4e: adj. PTP of NOK 915m, supported by strong NII growth. Changing rate path means wider lending margins & NIM. We like the dividend yield of ~10.4% - BUY into the numbers.

Norway: further consolidation in the P&C industry

Fremtind Forsikring (14.8%) intends to merge with Eika Forsikring (4%). New market share size of 18.8% (#3) should be acceptable for the competition authority. Likely to make the industry even more rational - positive.

Norwegian savings banks: Christmas gifts from the NFSA

Sp1 banks are allowed to establish "new" Sp1 Markets. Gains will be moved from Q1'24e to Q4'23e and add to dividend capacity. Prefer MING and SVEG in Norway on more attractive valuation.

Strong capital position gives attractive yields

Q3: Adj. PTP miss of 5% amid non-interest income and costs. Revise adj. EPS down as we expect tougher margin picture ahead. CET1 of 19.7% should give EO DPS in Q4, and we keep BUY.

Q3: Miss expectations on higher costs

Adj. PTP miss of 8% vs. ABGSCe, 10% vs. cons driven by higher personnel costs and non-interest driven income. Cons. '23e-25e EPS chg. down 2-4%, stock -2-5% today

Extraordinary dividend on the cards

Q3e: NII growth behind the PTP uplift. Adj. EPS '25e trimmed on tougher mortgage competition. Our preferred Norwegian bank, we reiterate BUY.

Well-capitalised, room for growth & distribution

Q2: weaker income and costs, lower loan losses. Mixed estimate revisions, '23e DPS up. Strong buffers to its capital requirement offer upside.

Miss due to weaker other income and costs

Adj. PTP miss of 5% vs. ABGSCe, 7% vs. cons, driven by weaker costs and other income. Cons. '23e-25e EPS chg. down 1-3%, stock -1-3% today

Insurance: Q2 natural perils loss in Norway

Norwegian banks: Further NII uplift

Sector trading at P/E'23e-'24e of 8.3x and 8.1x at a P/BV of 1.1x with ROE of ~14%. Adj. EPS up (higher interest rates) – expect further cons. uplift.

Could benefit from Danske's withdrawal

Trading at P/E'23e-'24e 8.5x and 7.9x; P/BV 1.09x with ROE of ~14%. Adj. EPS up (higher interest rates) – expect further cons. uplift. BUY.

Decent beat adj. for non-recurring items

Adj. PTP beat of 22% vs. ABGSCe, 16% vs. consensus, driven by write-backs and adj. income, muted by weaker costs. Cons. '23e EPS chg. likely limited, +1-3% for '24e-'25e

Norwegian banks: another strong quarter

Q1e: expect solid reports, but with a neutral risk/reward. Adj. EPS up (higher interest rates) — expect further cons. uplift. Trading in line with historical average — but record earnings

Best net profit quarter since its Fremtind gains

Q1: NII driving the growth. Adj. EPS up on further interest rate hikes. We reiterate BUY - TP to NOK 147 (142).