Norway: One downgrade — three top picks

Muted market outlook - some signs of improvement. Selvaag Bolig down to HOLD (Buy). We favour AFG, MULTI, and VEI.

Profit potential about to emerge

Q1e: PTP NOK 251m - second highest Q1 profit in AFG's history. Earnings to double y-o-y in '24e. BUY, TP NOK 155 (145).

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

We think the trough is behind us

Q4: Mixed report - very strong cash flow. Earnings to double y-o-y in '24e. BUY and TP of NOK 145 reiterated.

Mixed report - share has troughed

Not out of the woods yet

Q4e: We are -10% below consensus. Risk for write-downs in Sweden and Property. BUY, TP NOK 145.

A new division hurting performance

Q3: large Offshore write-down the big surprise. We cut '24/'25 estimates by -10%/-5%. BUY, TP down to NOK 145 (175).

Weak report and dividend cut

Ramp-up in Civil production in H2'23

Q3e: Likely another step in the right direction. Loss-making Building contracts to gradually roll out of the backlog. Book-to-bill 0.65x – Q4 order intake likely better.

A step in the right direction

Q2: Headline figures below, margin relief in Building Norway. Loss-making Building contracts will gradually roll out of the backlog. Book-to-bill 1.4x – order backlog at all-time high.

Relief in Building Norway

Norway: Q2'23 - Two recommendation changes

Strong order intake, but lower building activity expected. Two recommendation changes. We favour AFG, SBO, and SSG.

Close to bottom operationally

Q2e: PTP NOK 321m. Bad building contracts will gradually roll out of the backlog. Reiterate BUY, TP NOK 175 (200).

We expect a delayed recovery

Pre-announced write-downs of NOK 230m in Betonmast Sweden. Bad building contracts will gradually roll out of the backlog. Reiterate BUY and TP of NOK 200.

Underlying figures slightly weaker than expected

PW: Project write-downs of NOK 230m in Q1

Mean reversion in 2023

Q1e: PTP +7% vs. consensus. Q1e book-to-bill >1x - strong order pipeline for Q2. Reiterate BUY and TP of NOK 200.