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ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

Norway: One downgrade — three top picks

Muted market outlook - some signs of improvement. Selvaag Bolig down to HOLD (Buy). We favour AFG, MULTI, and VEI.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

Share has outpaced short-term fundamentals

Q1e: ABGSC is 21% below consensus. UP: Divi cut likely in a prolonged distressed market. Down to HOLD (Buy), TP NOK 40 (45)

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

Profit potential about to emerge

Q1e: PTP NOK 251m - second highest Q1 profit in AFG's history. Earnings to double y-o-y in '24e. BUY, TP NOK 155 (145).

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

Green flags from the project portfolio

Q1e: PTP NOK 2m vs. consensus NOK -16m. Loss-making revenue in the backlog the lowest in 9 years. DPS = EPS = 8-9% dividend yield.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

Diligence creates resilience

Q1e: EBITA of NOK 131m vs. consensus NOK 120m. Can add ~25% to EBIT through M&A. Trading at ~20% discount to Nordic peers. BUY.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

Preparing for more investments

NOK 100m cash inflow from swap reset. Last BEWI tranche accretive to existing shareholders. Implicit yield ~8%. BUY.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

A large step towards fixing its balance sheet

Small changes to estimates into report. Large long-term potential. BUY, TP of NOK 135.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen

Strong run but still cheap

Still outperforming expectations. Sees opportunities for larger acquisitions. BUY reiterated, TP NOK 250.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

Needs to provide margin confidence at CMU

Strong order activity - Q1e book-to-bill 2x. Restructuring of the Norwegian demolition business. CMU in conjunction with Q1'24 report on 23 May. BUY.

ABGSC Strategy Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Strategy Research
  • Bengt Jonassen

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

Large potential once all moles are whacked

Q4: Weaker earnings, stronger order intake and cash flow. New guidance suggests '24e adj. EBIT of 140-160m. BUY, TP of NOK 14.

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