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ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+8)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Olof Cederholm
  • Stian Wibstad

Renewable Weekly – 22 April 2024

This week, we're taking a closer look at Ørsted. Despite challenges in the last few years, we now argue Ørsted is back on the right path. We rate the stock a BUY, and set a 12-month TP of DKK 450/sh.

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

More newbuilds neither needed nor wanted

Investor concern over newbuild splash seems unwarranted. '25e EBITDA +20% vs. consensus. TP NOK 200 (194) – BUY.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

Norway: One downgrade — three top picks

Muted market outlook - some signs of improvement. Selvaag Bolig down to HOLD (Buy). We favour AFG, MULTI, and VEI.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

Profit potential about to emerge

Q1e: PTP NOK 251m - second highest Q1 profit in AFG's history. Earnings to double y-o-y in '24e. BUY, TP NOK 155 (145).

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland

Profit sharing and more buybacks

Q1e: results before amortisation of NOK 1.17bn and solvency ~191%. Estimates up slightly on AUM and more profit sharing (Sweden). Earnings growth and SBB key focus; BUY, NOK TP 125 (120).

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+8)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Olof Cederholm
  • Stian Wibstad

Renewable Weekly – 12 April 2024

This week , we provide some insight into the marginal pricing of electricity markets in Europe, as well as calculation details and a simple calculator where investors can enter their own assumptions.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen

Stronger earnings momentum from Q2e

We estimate USD 156m in Q1 EBITDA. Book-to-bill ~1x in Q1e, solid tender pipeline. Still attractive cash flow yield — BUY, TP NOK 220 (200).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen

Q1 was strong - FCF ahead

Q1 was a big relief. We are confident that the outlook is bright. Attractive valuation for combined entity: BUY, TP NOK of 180 (170).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen

Q1 likely solid

Steady production, high oil/gas prices. '24e and '25e EPS down ~11% due to lower gas price assumptions. We stick to SELL, TP to NOK 275 (250) on more bullish LT oil price.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
ABGSC Metals & Mining Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Metals & Mining Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Martin Melbye

Still a BUY

Q1'24 EBITDA of NOK 5.8bn expected, '24e EBITDA up 4%. Upstream better, lower volumes and margin pressure downstream. Reiterate BUY — TP NOK 75 (68).

ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun
ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+8)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Olof Cederholm
  • Stian Wibstad

Renewable Weekly – 4 April 2024

This week, we take a look at cost developments in the offshore wind supply chain.

ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun

Downgrades sober the spot price party

Quality downgrades partly offset stronger spot prices, so our Q1 estimates are up only 3% ahead of the trading updates. Consensus a tad optimistic – we are still 6% below on Q1 EBIT.

ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun

Trading update to show downside risk to Q1

We expect EBIT of NOK 783m, -6% vs consensus. Key risk is prices (i.e., downgrade share and trout volume). Attractive at '24e-'25e P/E of 10x-9x. BUY, TP of NOK 59.

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+8)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Olof Cederholm
  • Stian Wibstad

Renewable Weekly – 27 March 2024

Of our basket of 41 stocks, returns were positive for 33 and negative for 8 over the week. Median performance 4.1%, average 9.9%. Sub-sectors: Wind (3%), Solar (7%), Hydrogen (7%), Cleantech/other (2%).

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