Norway: One downgrade — three top picks

Muted market outlook - some signs of improvement. Selvaag Bolig down to HOLD (Buy). We favour AFG, MULTI, and VEI.

Needs to provide margin confidence at CMU

Strong order activity - Q1e book-to-bill 2x. Restructuring of the Norwegian demolition business. CMU in conjunction with Q1'24 report on 23 May. BUY.

Large potential once all moles are whacked

Q4: Weaker earnings, stronger order intake and cash flow. New guidance suggests '24e adj. EBIT of 140-160m. BUY, TP of NOK 14.

Weak earnings, strong order intake and cash flow

Significant upside, weak visibility

Q4e: We are -6% below consensus adj. EBIT. Subdued margin in Finland to continue in '24e. BUY, TP of NOK 14 (15).

Entering '24e with a wider range of outcomes

Q3: Adj. EBIT 12% below consensus. New '23 guidance suggests adj. EBIT of NOK 135-145m. Trading at 9.5x '24e EPS. BUY.

Figures below - '23 guidance lowered

Decent risk/reward at the current valuation

Q3e: We are a tad above consensus. '23 guidance suggests EBITA of NOK 170m-200m. Trading at ~6x '24e adj. EPS. BUY.

Improved visibility on earnings

Q2: EBIT of NOK 65m vs. consensus of NOK 61m. '23 guidance suggests EBITA of NOK 170m-200m. Improved visibility on earnings, up to BUY (Hold).

NRC FC

Norway: Q2'23 - Two recommendation changes

Strong order intake, but lower building activity expected. Two recommendation changes. We favour AFG, SBO, and SSG.

Risk/reward is improving

We are 4% below consensus for Q2e. '23 guidance suggests EBITA of NOK 170m-200m. Risk/reward is improving; share trading at 8x '23e adj. earnings.

Needs to rebuild confidence

Q1: EBITA of NOK -45m vs. consensus of NOK -31m. Several one-off items in the quarter. '23 guidance suggests EBITA of NOK 170m-200m. HOLD, TP NOK 11.5.

Messy quarter, but underlying operations close to expectations

All eyes on Sweden

Q1e: EBITA NOK -33m vs. consensus NOK -31m.'23 guidance suggests EBITA of NOK 170m-200m. Trading at 8x '23e adj. earnings.