Norway: One downgrade — three top picks

Muted market outlook - some signs of improvement. Selvaag Bolig down to HOLD (Buy). We favour AFG, MULTI, and VEI.

Green flags from the project portfolio

Q1e: PTP NOK 2m vs. consensus NOK -16m. Loss-making revenue in the backlog the lowest in 9 years. DPS = EPS = 8-9% dividend yield.

The best student in class

Q4: 30% above expectations. '24e PTP up 6%. DPS = EPS = ~9% '24e dividend yield. BUY.

Blowout - PTP 30% above expectations

~NOK 17/share in excess cash

Q4e: We are in line with consensus. Veidekke could add ~30% to EBIT through M&A. Trading at 9.3x '24e cash adj. P/E. BUY.

Better visibility - Muted outlook

Q3: PTP NOK 601m vs. consensus at NOK 566m. Veidekke could add ~30% to EBIT through M&A. Trading at 9.4x '24e cash adj. P/E.

PTP 6% above consensus, muted outlook

Decent performance despite volume pressure

Q3e: PTP NOK 571m vs. consensus NOK 574m. Veidekke could add ~30% to EBIT through M&A. Trading at ~11x '23e cash adj. P/E.

A small setback in Civil Engineering

A step back in Civil Engineering

Norway: Q2'23 - Two recommendation changes

Strong order intake, but lower building activity expected. Two recommendation changes. We favour AFG, SBO, and SSG.

No big surprises expected in Q2

Q2e: Adj. PTP NOK 421m vs. consensus NOK 430m. Tweaking estimates down on weaker building outlook. Trading at ~13x '23e cash adj. P/E.

Building Sweden a drag on earnings

Q1: Adj. PTP NOK -37m vs. consensus NOK -6m. Weak profitability in Building Sweden weigh s on estimates. Trading at ~10.7x '23e cash adj. P/E.

Underlying figures slightly below

NOK 110m dispute loss but a FCF booster

Q1'23 likely a continuance of 2022

Q1e: PTP NOK 24m vs. consensus NOK -8m. Weaker activity ahead, but the backlog is solid. Trading at ~10.7x '23e cash adj. P/E.