If you can't convince them, confuse them?

Unlocking growth levers to drive re-valuation

4% organic GP growth in Q1e, adj. EBITDA +3% y-o-y. Leverage below 2x in Q1e, adj. EBITDA and FCF cut 1%. Return to >5% organic growth in 2024e is key for our BUY case.

Twilio keeps Segment and provides 2024 guidance

On the way back to higher growth

Q4 is likely the start of a better growth trend, key to re-value share. Adj. EBITDA +1-2%, but one-offs in 2024e push low-base EPS -54%. 8.8x '24e EV/adj. EBITA, we stick to BUY and TP SEK 45.

Q4 beat across the board, stock up

Attractive risk/reward ahead of Q4 on Thursday

Bird announces aggressive price cuts in Sweden

Q4e to improve over Q3

We expect 1% organic GP growth in Q4e, up from -2% in Q3. Sinch ready to grow in 2024e, with costs under control. Adj. EBITDA -4% on FX, low base EPS -12-18%; BUY, TP SEK 45.

Continued improving US tech sentiment

Encouraging Cyber Week data

Twilio Q3 surprised positively

On the way back: BUY

Costs, cash flow and leverage were all better in Q3. We expect growth comeback in 2024e, adj. EBITDA +0-1% '24-'25e. 6.7x 2024e EV/adj. EBITA, we reiterate BUY and a TP of SEK 45.

Strong cash flow and lower leverage, stock up

Note the tough comps in Q3e

Remember that Sinch raised profit expectations in Q3’22. Q3e: -2% org GP growth and +3% vs cons. on adj. EBITDA. Adj. EBITDA and FCF cut -1-3%, 2024 growth case remains: BUY.

Growth comeback to surprise in 2024e

We expect no organic growth in H2e but a recovery to 8% in 2024e. Valued at 43% discount to zero-growth telecom operators. Leverage risks behind, costs under control: BUY, >100% upside to target.

Visiting CM.com in the Netherlands

Peer CM.com's CEO was upbeat on messaging value proposition. Market back to growth in 2024e should unlock value potential. We stick to BUY on Sinch, but H2e offers few triggers.

Taking a look at Q2 for CPaaS peers

Muted H2 guidance overshadows Q2 beat

We should not expect the typical seasonal pattern of H2>H1. '24-'25e: Adj. EBITDA -3%, EPS -7-10%, multiples remain low. We like what the company does and market will return: BUY.

Slightly better numbers, CF a bit weak

Continuing with the low growth

Market growth remains low, but Tata acquired Kaleyra this week. We reiterate BUY and a TP of SEK 50, and we estimate that growth will take off for Sinch at the end of 2023e.