A quarter to look past

Q4 top line down 41% y-o-y, but marks the trough. Estimate reset - we cut '24e + '25e adj. EBITDA by 44% + 39%. Awaiting evidence of improvement - keep HOLD, TP of SEK 8 (13).

Resetting expectations

Difficult spot - keep HOLD

Underwhelming Q3 even when considering rev-share transition. We cut '23e-'24e org. growth by 7-4pp, and deconsolidate Italy. Awaiting evidence of improvement - keep HOLD, TP SEK 13 (19).

Soft Q3 but decently priced divestments

Lack of launches weighing heavily

A step behind

The Q2 results showed organic sales declining by 16% (15% ABGSCe lccy), and adj. EBITDA from cont. ops. down by 60% y-o-y.

Low expectations not low enough

Revising estimates following divestments

We adjust our estimates following recent news. Impairment weighs on reported EBIT, limited adj. revisions. Additional cost savings more than offsets divestments.

Non-US divestments continue

We fear a tougher outlook - HOLD

Seasonally weak Q2 likely to push bottom line into red. We cut '23e and '24e growth on reviewed assumptions. TP cut to SEK 28 (31) - down to HOLD.

Value too good to ignore — up to BUY

We upgrade CTM to BUY (Hold) on valuation. The share came down 16% on the reporting day, which we assess is unwarranted, and we see potential for a near-term recovery.

Q1 beat and new financial targets

Perfect Ohio launch is not enough

Decent Q1 driven by US launches, but tough comps. We lower '23e-'25e adj. EBIT by 6-7% on small top line cuts. HOLD on unexciting '23e.