Norway: One downgrade — three top picks

Muted market outlook - some signs of improvement. Selvaag Bolig down to HOLD (Buy). We favour AFG, MULTI, and VEI.

Diligence creates resilience

Q1e: EBITA of NOK 131m vs. consensus NOK 120m. Can add ~25% to EBIT through M&A. Trading at ~20% discount to Nordic peers. BUY.

Entering 2024 on a high note

Q4: Better on all parameters. We lift our billing ratio expectations by ~0.5pp. Trading at ~15% discount to Norconsult on '24e earnings.

Strong finish to 2023 - EBITA 30% above cons

Higher long-term earnings capacity

Q4e: We are -2% below consensus. Focus on utilisation amid rate pressure. Trading at ~10% discount to Norconsult on '24e earnings. BUY, TP NOK 160.

Up to BUY - 30% upside to historical valuation

Q3: Weaker than market expectations. Strong headcount growth in Q3 - 132 net hires. Up to BUY (Hold) - '24e P/E ~11x and ~8% div. yield.

Figures below driven by Architecture

FTE growth hurts short-term unit economics

Q3e: We are -35% below consensus. Strong headcount growth in Q3e - 130 net hires. Sector has traded down – MULTI on par with peers.

Step-up in seasonal recruiting in Q3

Q2 figures -7% vs. consensus. Strong head count growth in Q3e. Sector traded down – MULTI trading at 10% discount.

Q2'23: EBIT 7% below consensus

Norway: Q2'23 - Two recommendation changes

Strong order intake, but lower building activity expected. Two recommendation changes. We favour AFG, SBO, and SSG.

More accretive M&A lifts estimates

Q2: We are -11% below consensus. A-Lab acquisition adds 3-5% to estimates. Sector traded lower, trades in line with sector average - down to HOLD.

Strong sailer despite macro headwinds

Q1: EBIT 26% above consensus. Still ~10% discount to Nordic peers - TP up to 190 (170) - BUY.

Blowout Q1 figures

Q1e: EPS close to NOK 5

Q1e: EBIT NOK 181m vs. consensus at NOK 164m. Can acquire ~NOK 100m in additional EBIT. 20% discount to Nordic peers - 6% yield.