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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

More newbuilds neither needed nor wanted

Investor concern over newbuild splash seems unwarranted. '25e EBITDA +20% vs. consensus. TP NOK 200 (194) – BUY.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
04/18/24 April 18, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Strategy Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Strategy Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
PREMIUM
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7
TGS-NO TGS ... (+11)

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7
TGS-NO TGS
BONHR-NO BONHEUR
NAS-NO NORWEGIAN AIR SHUTTLE
NHY-NO HYDRO
EQNR-NO EQUINOR
STB-NO STOREBRAND
LINK-NO LINK MOBILITY
LSG-NO LERØY SEAFOOD GROUP
AFG-NO AF GRUPPEN
WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
03/12/24 March 12, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

"Somewhat better" is an understatement

Volumes down, but rates up as numbers are restated. '25e EBITDA +28% vs. consensus. TP of NOK 194 (201) – BUY

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
02/15/24 February 15, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

Shipping as expected, but soft outlook

EBITDA of USD 452m (-2% vs. ABGSC, -4% vs. cons). Shipping services above ABGSCe, Logistics in-line, weaker in Government and Holdings. A messy report, the presentation will be key.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
02/14/24 February 14, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HAUTO-NO Höegh Auto...
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe... ... (+3)

Car carriers: Order book is not a threat to 2024e

The car shipping market could crash during 2024, but we do not believe that is likely, despite it being the base case for sell-side consensus.

HAUTO-NO HöEGH AUTOLINERS
WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
GCC-NO GRAM CAR CARRIERS
02/06/24 February 6, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

65% above cons, but we feel conservative

Order book at 36% of the current fleet is not enough. ABGSCe 16% and 34% above cons. EBITDA '24e-'25e. TP NOK 201 (199) – BUY.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
02/06/24 February 6, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

'24e-'25e EBITDA up another ~15%

Estimates up for both '24e and '25e, but it could be more. ABGSCe 18% and 41% above cons. EBITDA '24e-'25e. TP NOK 199 (167) – BUY.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
11/01/23 November 1, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

7% beat in Q3, strong outlook

Adj. EBITDA of USD 478m (7% vs. ABGSC, 7% vs. cons). Shipping services in-line with expectations, beat in Logistics and Government. "Short-term market [...] robust" and "Renewals of multi-year contracts at significantly higher rates"; stock up 3-5%

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
11/01/23 November 1, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

Highly manageable fleet growth in 2024

Minor estimate adjustments. In line with cons. for Q3'23e EBITDA, but 31% above on '25e. TP NOK 167 (157) – BUY.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
10/23/23 October 23, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

Beat and only 12 newbuildings

Adj. EBITDA of USD 477m (13% vs. ABGSC, 11% vs. cons). Beat in all segments, but miss on net rate. LOI with 4 + 8 9,350 CEU methanol-capable and ammonia-ready vessels. "Short-term market demand remains robust", stock up 3-5%.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
08/15/23 August 15, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

Playing catch-up to HAUTO

Global car export update, up 32% YTD (May). ABGSCe 7% below cons. Q2'23e EBITDA, while we are 20% above for 2025e. TP NOK 154 (165) – BUY reiterated.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
07/13/23 July 13, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

Should soon begin to catch up with competitors

WAWI's net rate is lagging competitors. ‘24e EBITDA USD 1,889m (cons. 1,538m). TP up to NOK 165 (172) – BUY reiterated.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
05/05/23 May 5, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

Below expectations, but no drama

Adj. EBITDA of USD 397m (-12% vs. ABGSC, -12% vs. cons). "We still see a very strong market". Share price down 3-5%.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
05/04/23 May 4, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

The car trade is structurally changing

The global car trade is in the early stages of structural change: ‘24e EBITDA USD 1,804m (cons. 1,616m), TP NOK 172 (164) – BUY reiterated.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
04/23/23 April 23, 2023 1 EN
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