Norway: One downgrade — three top picks

Muted market outlook - some signs of improvement. Selvaag Bolig down to HOLD (Buy). We favour AFG, MULTI, and VEI.

Preparing for more investments

NOK 100m cash inflow from swap reset. Last BEWI tranche accretive to existing shareholders. Implicit yield ~8%. BUY.

YE'24 property value of NOK 8bn within reach

Q4: Operationally in line, lower finance costs. Last BEWI tranche accretive to existing shareholders. Implicit yield ~8%.

IFPM 12% above

Still ~8% implicit yield after revaluation

Pulling the right levers

Messy report, but IFPM 21% ahead of ABGSCe

Implicit yield of 8.5% - up to BUY

Last BEWI tranche adds 10% to '24e CEPS. Trading at ~8.5% implicit yield and ~13x '24e CEPS. Up to BUY (Hold), TP of NOK 6.5 (5.7).

New acquisition adds ~10% to CEPS

Positives offset by higher floating rates

Q2: IFPM 9% above consensus. Growth ambitions pressured by lower yield-gap. Trading at ~15x '24e CEPS.

Underlying cost drives beat

Norway: Q2'23 - Two recommendation changes

Strong order intake, but lower building activity expected. Two recommendation changes. We favour AFG, SBO, and SSG.

Refinancing terms not as good as indicated

Estimates down -19% on higher financing costs. Down to HOLD (Buy) TP NOK 6 (8.7). Trading at ~15x '24e CEPS -– strong growth profile.

Recurring earnings of NOK 36m up 114% y-o-y

Bond refinancing will boost CEPS

Q1e: Step-change in IFPM