ROE held back by too-high capital base

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Insurance repricing on track

Q1 PTP before amortisation was NOK1,167m, up 8% YOY, driven by strong growth in Banking and Insurance. While high sales activity had a negative impact on the insurance cost ratio, the combined ratio continued to improve through premium growth of 20% YOY, leaving Storebrand close to the 90–92% target for 2025. We have made fairly limited EPS revisions for 2026–2027e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK149 target price.

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Softer operating profit, better financials

Adj PTP +5%/-2%, on better financials, but much weaker op.profit. Softer fee, insurance and opex behind the miss, financials beat. Cons.est.rev -2-4%, stock -2% to 4% on the operating profit miss

Heads-up for Q1-report, 7 May

A setback for AUM and returns

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Relatively good place to be

We reiterate our BUY and EUR11 target price, with only small estimate changes following the Q1 results (which brought stronger orders but softer earnings than we expected). Despite general uncertainties, we continue to view Metso’s end-market exposure, financials and valuation as attractive.

Orders, margin, cash compensate delivery gap

Q1 delivery shortfall but not fundamentally worrying

Heads-up for report 24 April

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2025

Q1 was OK but that's ancient history now

Did the volatility already affect large orders?

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Slow large mining capital decisions

Metso (METSO FH, Buy) - Slow large mining capital decisions (19 pages)

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Strong start to the year

Fuelled by strong AUM growth within Savings, and the effects of several rounds of insurance repricing, we forecast a Q1 PTP (before amortisation) of NOK1,166m, ~8% stronger YOY. With the new NOK1.5bn buyback underway, the company is offering an attractive payout yield of 6–7%. We believe the stock is attractively valued at a 2026e P/E of c10x, when adjusting for the excess capital to be distributed. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK149 (140).

Germany: Investing its way back to growth

Resurs Holding AB: 1 director

A director at Resurs Holding AB bought 146,251 shares at 23.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...

Earnings quality kick continues

Finnish Industrials (, ) - Earnings quality kick continues (32 pages)

The Capital Goods Data Miner - March 2025 (republished)

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK90.00) - Margin volatility

After updating our model for the weaker Q3 results than forecast, we have reduced our 2024/25–2026/27e adj. EBIT by c9% on average as we expect lower profitability. We have cut our target price to SEK90 (105) and reiterate our HOLD on limited upside potential. While we expect improving organic growth, we have low confidence in the margin target (10% on EBIT) due to the margin volatility, and find the valuation fair.