Norway: Updated traffic lights suggest lower growth

Set for a comeback

'24e EBIT (core) +0% as LSG offsets negative revisions to pelagics. Attractive exposure to fishmeal and fish oil industries. BUY reiterated, 35% upside to TP of NOK 106/share.

Q4: EBIT 28% above on LSG, DPS in line

One step forward, one step back

Higher salmon prices as biology goes from bad to worse, but muted '24e EBIT impact; flipside is volumes down and costs up. The playing field is changing, but we remain sector BUYers.

'24 should be much better

Q4e EBIT (core) of NOK 521m, -12% vs. FactSet cons. '24e EBIT little changed, '25e EBIT up on LSG (higher prices). '24e P/E of 7x screens attractively; BUY, TP NOK 104 (106).

Improvements across the portfolio in '24

'23e/24e EBIT (core) -11%/-5% on LSG and Austral. Attractive exposure to fishmeal and fish oil industries. BUY reiterated, 45% upside to TP of NOK 106/share.

Q3: EBIT 27% below cons on LSG and pelagic assets

Recent weakness offers a second chance

Market fundamentals look better than we feared, but sector is down 8% and consensus is now more aligned with us. We thus see improved risk/reward at '23e-24e P/E of 15-12x.

Peruvian optimism

Q3e EBIT (core) of NOK 574m, 14% below FactSet consensus. '23e up 8% on LSG, while '24e EBIT is little changed. Look beyond '23e; '24e P/E of 7x should be attractive.

A year to forget – look towards '24

'23e EBIT down 11% on material cuts to Austral. Stronger prices to partly offset softer pelagic volumes. Attractive exposure to LSG, '24e P/E of 7x looks appealing.

Q2: EBIT 17% below on very weak Austral

Approaching the inflection point

Sector down 12% on weak spot-price sentiment since May. Some potential negative data points left, but set to turn in H2, and largely reflected with sector at '23e-'24e P/E of 15-12x. Our sector top-pick remains Mowi.

Peruvian shortfall

Q2e EBIT (core) of NOK 1,089m, 12% below FactSet cons. Our '23e/'24e EBIT is down by double digits on Peruvian shortfall. Look beyond '23e; '24e P/E of 7x should be attractive.

Short-term Peruvian concerns

'23e EBIT 8% lower on LSG and short-term concerns in Austral. Strong prices should partly offset softer pelagic volumes. Attractive exposure to LSG and pelagic assets at a discount.

Q1 EBIT +5% vs cons despite LSG miss

Valuation support, but sentiment set to cool

Shares and estimates continue to climb on high prices. Valuation support at '23-'24e P/E of 13-15x, but we see risk of weaker sentiment the next 6 months.

Headwinds from Mother Nature

We continue to find AUSS attractive given its exposure to LSG and pelagic assets at a discount. We reiterate BUY (TP NOK 136).