Calendar effect to hurt Q1

Q1 report due 16 May. We expect lower adj. EBITA y-o-y from Easter effect. Swedish KPIs support H2 improvements.

Not as bad as it looked

Profitability issues rather than demand shortage. We lower our '24e EBITA by 1%. Up to HOLD (Sell), unchanged TP of SEK 110.

A rare miss in Q4 caused by UK

Struggling to find triggers — down to SELL

Q4 report due 9 February, focus on '24 outlook. Weak market KPIs in Sweden, '24e EBITA down 2%. Share up 24% L3M, '24e consensus for EBITA only up 3%.

Quality shines through

Lease-adj. EBITA 5% above consensus. We raise our '24e EBITA by 3%. TP up to SEK 110 (105), reiterate HOLD.

Smooth as it goes

Solid Q3 expected

Q3 report due 27 October, focus on trading update. We lower '24e EBITA by 2%. Trading at a rare discount to the broader market.

Strong execution in a challenging quarter

EBITA 2% above consensus and 4% above ABGSCe. We raise our '23e EBITA by 4%. Up to HOLD on less uncertainty and lower valuation.

Navigating troubled waters

Q2 to be solid but expectations looks stretched

Q2 report due 18 July, focus on ability to offset wage inflation. FX behind positive '23e revisions. Valuation is normalising, struggling to see positive triggers.

Solid Q1 but priced accordingly

EBITA 6% above consensus and ABGSCe. We raise our '23e EBITA by 4% following successful pricing. Reiterate SELL with an unchanged TP of SEK 120.

Higher realised prices drive Q1 beat