We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.
Suspensions becoming effective. New day-rate assumptions at USD 120-140kpd (160-170kpd). Uncertainty persists, but utilisation could turn by early next year. BUY.
Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).
Jackup market remains tight at 93% market utilisation, which we think will push rates into the USD 170s. EV/rig of USD 148m and 10-14% '25e-'26e divi . yield,: BUY, TP NOK 95.
OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.