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ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Lowering expectations

Suspensions becoming effective. New day-rate assumptions at USD 120-140kpd (160-170kpd). Uncertainty persists, but utilisation could turn by early next year. BUY.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Small changes after Q4

Q4 adj. EBITDA of USD 106m, +4% vs cons. Estimates close to unchanged after Q4. BUY, TP of NOK 95.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

New year, new leading edge rates

Jackup market remains tight at 93% market utilisation, which we think will push rates into the USD 170s. EV/rig of USD 148m and 10-14% '25e-'26e divi . yield,: BUY, TP NOK 95.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Highest jackup utilisation since 2014

Lower (but not unexpected) FY'23 guidance. EBITDA down 5% in '23e and up 5% in '25e. BUY, TP NOK 105.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Day rates going higher

We lift our day rate assumptions, as the market remains close to sold-out. BUY, TP of NOK 105 (89).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Focus on increasing day rates and refinancing

Q1 adj. EBITDA in line, NIBD below. No changes to key estimates. BUY, TP NOK 89 (unchanged).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Market remains close to sold out

Focus on earnings, cash flow and dividend capacity, combined with a continued tight JU market. BUY, TP NOK 89 (unchanged).

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