Crude Quarterly Q3'24: Lower oil price

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Focus on the PBR rigs

Lowering '24 estimates in line with guidance. Focus on the PBR rigs and West Phoenix. BUY, TP NOK 650 (670)

Q2 above, but lowering 2024 guidance

Becoming a pure-play deepwater driller

Carving out jackups from estimates. Focus on West Phoenix and the PBR rigs. 5.1-3.0x EBITDA and 12-26% '25e-'26e FCF to EV yield: BUY.

Crude Quarterly Q2'24: tighter oil market ahead

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Sells Qatar jackups and expands buyback program

Navigating a challenging '24 very well

Underlying Q1 numbers fairly in line. Maintains guidance and increases visibility. Minor estimate changes - BUY, TP NOK 670 (unch.)

Q1 EBITDA above, contract award and guidance maintained

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

Day rates edging higher

Day rate momentum has picked up again, and rising tender durations strengthen confidence in a lasting upcycle. 4.9-3.0x EBITDA and 13-26% '25e-'26e FCF to EV yield, BUY.

2024 guidance a relief

2024 EBITDA guidance was a relief. Cash flow boost as legacy contracts roll off & SPSs are completed. 4.0-2.3x '25/'26 EV/EBITDA: BUY, TP NOK 590 (610).

Q4 below - focus on the 2024 guidance on the conf call

Commercial update shows strong day rates but also more '24 downtime ri...

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).

Higher-rate lower-capex period approaching

Lower '24 estimates on increased idle time assumptions but value support from PBR contracts and BB programme. 3.8-2.3x '25e-'26e EBITDA; BUY, TP NOK 610

Building visibility for 2024

Another strong report and more buybacks. EBITDA up 9% in '23 – minor changes for '24-'25e. BUY, TP NOK 610.

Q3 above, increases guidance and new buyback program

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ST headwinds but fundamentals remain strong

'24 estimates down on idle time, but risk should be well known and fundamentals remain strong. BUY, TP NOK 610.

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.