Weak NII & fees, good costs, AQ & CET1

Adj. net profit +3%/+5% and adj. PBLL -1%/+2% vs. ABG/Infront cons. Miss PBLL from weaker NII & fees, while better PTP from lower LLP. Cons.est. -1-3% for 24e-25e (NII); stock same, but share BB mute

Heads-up for Q1 report, 24 April

Heads-up Q1

We just expect a neutral risk/reward into the numbers for DNB, as we are just ahead / aligned with consensus' profit before loan losses & pre-tax profit.

Repricing effects: gradual for '24e, full in '25e

Q1e: Underlying UW inline, beat on reported UW from run-offs. Adj. EPS up by 2% for '24e, unchanged for '25e & 2% for '26e. Trading at an unwarranted capital-adj. P/E of ~15% – BUY.

Q1 should be seen as a relief

Premium valuation still too high

Q1: Lower cost, higher run-off gains and better financials. Adj. EPS up by 3.7%, 2.8% and 2.6%, for '24-26e. Valuation premium and low yield make it unattractive.

Better costs and financials

Profit sharing and more buybacks

Q1e: results before amortisation of NOK 1.17bn and solvency ~191%. Estimates up slightly on AUM and more profit sharing (Sweden). Earnings growth and SBB key focus; BUY, NOK TP 125 (120).

Nordic non-life: Q1e - frequency & price hikes

Cold start, storms and snow set the stage for higher frequency claims. Underl. claims improved from last year's repricing and changed terms. Negative risk/reward in both Tryg and Top from UW & financials.

Expect buybacks to start soon

Q1e: tough Nordic weather a headwind, Hastings positive. Adj. EPS '24e -2% and '25e -1% amid premiums (FX impact). The best Nordic underwriter should trade at a premium to peers: BUY.

Valuation premium has narrowed

Q1e: another poor weather quarter combined with Oona headwind. Adj. EPS trimmed by 5% for '24e (claims) but unchanged for '25e. Valuation premium down a bit more (now 10-12%); stay away.

Marked by bad weather and expensive fire

Q1: Extraordinary weather and a large loss (Liseberg). Adj. '24e down 4% driven by weak Q1 and FX headwind. Still trading at an undeserved 10-12% discount on capital-adjusted P/E. BUY.

Repricing should pay off in 2025

Repricing and changed terms & conditions should start to pay off but we are concerned frequency claims will delay positive outcome. Adj. EPS'24e -12%, 25e +3%, and lower total yield. HOLD.

Nordic banks: Money machines

Cash yields and cost management increasingly important. We stay positive with four BUY ratings out of six. Positive risk/reward in Nordea and negative in Danske Bank.

A disciplined bank

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies March 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 32% y-o-y and down 12% m-o-m in March 2024. Corporate bankruptcies were up 36% y-o-y and down 13% m-o-m in March 2024.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending February 2024

Total lending decreased by 0.2% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.6% and retail lending 0.6%) and by -0.1% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was down by 0.1% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.3% and retail lending 0.6%)

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending February 2024

Total lending in February was up 3.3% y-o-y (corporate +4.8%; retail +2.4%) and was flat (0.0%) m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 2.7% y-o-y (corporate +4.3%; retail +1.8%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending February 2024

Total lending grew by 3.6% y-o-y (3.5% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.4% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.6% y-o-y.

Post CMD lunch: A more upbeat message

Sampo expects margins and operating EPS to grow. Supporting a closer to EUR 5bn deployable capital. Deserve a premium, not a rebate. BUY.