Underlying growth to start improving

Negative working day effect, but expect underlying growth up q-o-q. Q1 cons. looks too high: ABGSCe 5% below on adj. EBITDA. Cautious into numbers, likely better to BUY after.

Set for a return to >20% EBITDA margins

Danish margins likely past trough; licences to add ~1pp to margins. Credible '26 margin target, but consensus remains unconvinced. '25e-'26e EBITDA 6-11% above cons: BUY, new TP of DKK 340.

Some thoughts on the incident / data theft

Visibility on turnaround story - up to BUY

Strong Q4 FCF and launch of buybacks took focus. More visibility on turnaround: 27% EBITDA growth in '24e. Upgrading to BUY (Hold) with new TP of DKK 285 (225).

Improved visibility

Visibility is (still) too low

Q4e: Another weak quarter, but enough to reach FY'23 guidance. Still expect a better '24e despite neg. 4-3% adj. EBITDA revisions, but visibility is low: HOLD into numbers, reiterate TP of DKK 225.

Impressions from Q3 roadshow presentation

The tough quarters are likely not over

Q3 adds another significant earnings miss to the records; Cutting '24e-'25e adj. EBITDA by 3-2% and EPS by 8-4%; Confirming our cautious short-term view - not the time to buy; HOLD

Another weak quarter below consensus

Denmark in for another disappointing quarter

Q3e: adj. EBITDA 2% below consensus, EPS 10% below; Danish issues overshadow the strong growth abroad; 4% cut to '24e-'25e adj. EBITDA; TP cut to DKK 250 (280), HOLD

Awarded major UK framework contract

More support for our cautious short-term view

We cut '23e adj. EBITDA by 6% and adj. EPS by 15% on higher costs. Q2 revenues surprised positively, but weaker-than-expected profitability was the focus.

Weak profitability in Q2

Another decent quarter before it gets tougher

Q2e: adj. EBITDA ~1% below cons. Focus on Danish demand, Intrasoft growth, and UK margins. Attractive '24e-'25e multiples, but HOLD ahead of weaker H2.

Valuation aligned with weaker fundamentals

Following a change of analyst, we downgrade to HOLD (Buy). Our TP of DKK 290 (685) is a blend of a DCF (333) and peer multiples (avg. DKK 272).