Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

Harvesting the fruits

Increased estimates on higher oil price assumptions. Entering the harvesting period with increased distribution. We reiterate BUY, TP of NOK 39 (35).

Approaching the FCF inflection point

Distribution policy reiterated - 16% yield in '24. But estimates down on lower production guidance. Share price weakness a buying opportunity, BUY TP NOK 35 (38).

Limited impact from delayed drilling at Block G

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).

Great FCF potential and distributions from '24e

Minor estimate changes ahead of Q4e. Attractive FCF and distributions in '24e and beyond. We reiterate BUY, TP NOK 38.

Dividend story taking shape

A strong Q3 report, as expected. Increased distributions in '24: 14% yield. We reiterate BUY, TP NOK 38 (36).

Q3 numbers in line and increased distributions in '24

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 24 November

In our 24 November Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.

Estimates down on soft Dussafu production

Strong performance in Q3 overshadowed by disappointing Dussafu production guidance. '24e EBITDA down 9%, reiterate BUY, TP NOK 36 (40).

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 29 September

In our 29 September Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.

FCF will improve in H2'23

Q2 results as expected. ~70% of all '23 liftings in H2, will boost FCF. Approaching the harvesting phase, BUY, TP NOK 40.

Q2 in line and NOK 0.34/sh in dividends

De-risking the growth path

Minor estimate revisions ahead of Q2. Progress at Hibiscus/Ruche de-risks growth to >13kboe/d. Attractive cash generation and distributions, BUY TP NOK 40/sh.

Entering the harvesting phase

Africa-focused E&P company set to grow production by >2x. Approaching FCF harvest and attractive distribution yields. We initiate coverage with a BUY and TP of NOK 40/sh.