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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

"...expect rewarding times ahead"

DHT's Q1 report much as expected. Q2 guidance slightly above ABGSCe. BUY, TP of USD 16 (15).

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

More newbuilds into the upcycle

Near-term estimates down, adding NBs to our estimates. 69% above cons '25e EBITDA. BUY, TP of USD 15

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Q4 as expected, minor estimate changes

DHT's Q4 report much as expected. Q1 guidance slightly above ABGSCe. BUY, TP of USD 15 (14.4).

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Nine women can't produce a child in one month

All but VLCC rates are already at or close to ATH. Fleet growth will remain miniscule in '24-'25e. Average total return of ~70% in 2023, but more to come.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

When VLCC rates work, the last shall be first

Low fleet growth is guaranteed throughout 2025. Q4 TCE pre-announced - ABGSC 80% above cons. for '25e. BUY, TP of USD 14.4 (16.2).

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Q3 in line, cash generation lifts target price

DHT's Q3 report much as expected. Q4 guidance below ABGSCe, in line with cons. BUY, TP of USD 16.2 (15.4).

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

VLCCs should soon follow their smaller siblings

Q3e mostly unchanged, Q4e down. ABGSCe +79% vs. cons. ’25e EBITDA. BUY, TP of NOK 15.4 (16).

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Seasonal tailwinds and strong fundamentals

Global crude oil export up 4% m-o-m in July, 7% YTD. ABGSCe 70% above cons ensus ’24e EBITDA. BUY, TP of NOK 16.0 (15.6).

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

"Easily triggered for upward movements"

EBITDA of USD 90m (ABGSC USD 93m, cons USD 88m), EBITDA estimates up ~2-3% for Q3'23e. Share to trade in-line or slightly up versus peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Trading update implies 6% upside to cons' Q2 EBITDA

Q2: TCE of USD 56,300/day (+4% vs. ABGSCe at USD 54,333/day). Q3: 51% booked at USD 42,200/day (-20% vs. ABGSCe at USD 52,664/day). Scubbers on all vessels, financing secured. Flat share price expected.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Q2e slightly down, Q3e up

Volatile tanker rates and increasing asset prices. ABGSCe 81% above cons. ’24e EBITDA. BUY, TP of NOK 15.6 (15.3).

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