A low bar to clear

Q1e: We expect a flattening, but not an improving, q-o-q trend. Should be enough to trade up the share. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 50.

Strong cash flow lowers the risk notably

Strong cash flow in Q4 and lower capex/M&A for '24. Balance sheet materially de-risked, TP of SEK 50 (40). Share still sensitive to positive news, in our view.

Better than feared

Clearfield cal-Q4: Q1 to be weak, but maybe the trough

Corning Q4: Optical Comms' sales -24% y-o-y

Earn-outs: In the end, cash trumps EPS

Earn-outs: 0.6x of ND/EBITDA, and 25% of FCF, limited EPS impact (1-2%), but notable company deviations, FCF and debt impact more important than the earnings fluctuations.

Estimates cut after another outlook downgrade

Close to no expectations priced in, but also no clear triggers. '24e-'25e EBITA lowered by 24-20%. Debt looks manageable, but high leverage in a bearish scenario.

Another profit warning

Not out of the woods yet

EBITA down 4-8%, downside to company margin target. Fundamental value not priced in but momentum needs to turn for the share to rebound.

More soft quarters ahead

Cutting estimates and target multiple

Revised '23 estimates reflect lowered H2 outlook. Significant haircut to '24e-'25e, EBITA down ~20%. New TP SEK 70 (110) on '25e target multiple of 12x (15x).

Q3 PW: We expect -7% on '23e EBITA

Soft H2 outlook overshadowed a solid Q2

Q2 EBITA +2% vs. ABGSCe and 0% vs. consensus, but EBITA down 3-5% on poor H2 outlook. Still fundamental value for those willing to look past H2e.

Stronger margins, slightly lower growth

Heads-up for report 15 August

All fi(b)red up

Fibre one-stop-shop with a strong financial track record. Structural tailwinds for fibre remain despite near-term weakness. Initiate coverage with BUY, TP of SEK 120 (33% upside).