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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Minor changes

100%, 94% and 66% of the fleet fixed for '24, '25 and '26. In-line with cons ensus for Q1'24. TP of NOK 304 (303) – P/NAV 0.70x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

The car shipping yield benchmark

100%, 94% and 66% of the fleet fixed for '24, '25 and '26. ABGSCe 8% below consensus for '24e (cons. not fully updated).

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Share to trade in-line with peers

Adj. EBITDA of USD 41.6m (4% vs. ABGSCe, 2% vs. cons). 100%, 94% and 66% of the fleet fixed for '24, '25 and '26. Share to trade in-line with peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Car carriers: Order book is not a threat to 2024e

The car shipping market could crash during 2024, but we do not believe that is likely, despite it being the base case for sell-side consensus.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Still a very attractive risk-reward

Order book at 36% is not enough. 100%, 94% and 66% of the fleet fixed for '24, '25 and '26. TP of NOK 289 (300) - P/NAV 0.79x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Steady performance, increasing dividends

Car carrier values up, resale and 5YR vessels up 1% and 8% m-o-m. 96%, 89% and 63% of the fleet fixed for '24, '25 and '26. TP of NOK 300 (258) - P/NAV 0.72x. BUY.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Q3 much as expected

EBITDA of USD 40.5m (0% vs. ABGSCe, 2% vs. cons). 96%, 89% and 63% of the fleet fixed for '24, '25 and '26. Share to trade in-line with peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

~20% yield for 2024-25e

Minor adjustments - ~100%, 95%, 88% of the fleet fixed for '23, '24, '25. ABGSCe '24e EBITDA +1% vs. cons. TP of NOK 258 (248) - P/NAV 0.80x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Mostly fixed, minor adjustments

Minor adjustments - 98%, 80%, 76% of the fleet fixed for '23, '24, '25. ABGSCe '24e EBITDA +1% vs. cons. BUY with a TP of NOK 248 (231) - P/NAV 0.71x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Miss due to one-offs

EBITDA of USD 32.9m (-6% vs. ABGSCe, -5% vs. cons). 98%, 80% and 76% of the fleet fixed for '23, '24 and '25. Share to trade down 1-2% vs. peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

~30% FCF yield and strong downside protection

The global car trade is structurally changing. GCC's fleet is mostly fixed, '24e & '25e EBITDA of USD ~170m. BUY, TP NOK 231 - P/NAV 0.76x.

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