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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HAUTO-NO Höegh Auto...

Red Sea effect weighs more than expected

Q1e down on bigger Red Sea effect. 26% above cons. net profit for '25e. TP of NOK 176 (177) – BUY.

HAUTO-NO HöEGH AUTOLINERS
04/19/24 April 19, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GCC-NO Gram Car Carrie...

Minor changes

100%, 94% and 66% of the fleet fixed for '24, '25 and '26. In-line with cons ensus for Q1'24. TP of NOK 304 (303) – P/NAV 0.70x.

GCC-NO GRAM CAR CARRIERS
04/18/24 April 18, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

More newbuilds neither needed nor wanted

Investor concern over newbuild splash seems unwarranted. '25e EBITDA +20% vs. consensus. TP NOK 200 (194) – BUY.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
04/18/24 April 18, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HAUTO-NO Höegh Auto...

Back on track

Net rates of USD 84.4/CBM in March, up 4% from February. ~13% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q1'24e, consensus not updated with Jan-Feb data. Share to trade up 2-4%.

HAUTO-NO HöEGH AUTOLINERS
04/05/24 April 5, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Strategy Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Strategy Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
PREMIUM
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7
TGS-NO TGS ... (+11)

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7
TGS-NO TGS
BONHR-NO BONHEUR
NAS-NO NORWEGIAN AIR SHUTTLE
NHY-NO HYDRO
EQNR-NO EQUINOR
STB-NO STOREBRAND
LINK-NO LINK MOBILITY
LSG-NO LERØY SEAFOOD GROUP
AFG-NO AF GRUPPEN
WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
03/12/24 March 12, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HAUTO-NO Höegh Auto...

Trading update ~17% below Q1e cons

Net rates of USD 80.9/CBM in February, down 5% from January. ~17% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q1'24e, ~15% downside to FY'24e at current levels. Weak February data, "Red Sea effect" now showing.

HAUTO-NO HöEGH AUTOLINERS
03/07/24 March 7, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

"Somewhat better" is an understatement

Volumes down, but rates up as numbers are restated. '25e EBITDA +28% vs. consensus. TP of NOK 194 (201) – BUY

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
02/15/24 February 15, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

Shipping as expected, but soft outlook

EBITDA of USD 452m (-2% vs. ABGSC, -4% vs. cons). Shipping services above ABGSCe, Logistics in-line, weaker in Government and Holdings. A messy report, the presentation will be key.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
02/14/24 February 14, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GCC-NO Gram Car Carrie...

The car shipping yield benchmark

100%, 94% and 66% of the fleet fixed for '24, '25 and '26. ABGSCe 8% below consensus for '24e (cons. not fully updated).

GCC-NO GRAM CAR CARRIERS
02/09/24 February 9, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HAUTO-NO Höegh Auto...

Exemplifying how to manage a cycle

100% payout is the key for premium valuation. We are 48% above cons. net profit for '25e. TP NOK 177 (147) – BUY.

HAUTO-NO HöEGH AUTOLINERS
02/09/24 February 9, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HAUTO-NO Höegh Auto...

19% of market cap out in one go

Adj. EBITDA USD 199m (ABGSC 198, cons 190m). Net rate for January 1% above ABGSCe, but volumes down 15% m-o-m. Stock up 10% today.

HAUTO-NO HöEGH AUTOLINERS
02/08/24 February 8, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GCC-NO Gram Car Carrie...

Share to trade in-line with peers

Adj. EBITDA of USD 41.6m (4% vs. ABGSCe, 2% vs. cons). 100%, 94% and 66% of the fleet fixed for '24, '25 and '26. Share to trade in-line with peers.

GCC-NO GRAM CAR CARRIERS
02/08/24 February 8, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HAUTO-NO Höegh Auto...
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe... ... (+3)

Car carriers: Order book is not a threat to 2024e

The car shipping market could crash during 2024, but we do not believe that is likely, despite it being the base case for sell-side consensus.

HAUTO-NO HöEGH AUTOLINERS
WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
GCC-NO GRAM CAR CARRIERS
02/06/24 February 6, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HAUTO-NO Höegh Auto...

Too low expectations

Order book at 36% is not enough. 74% above cons. net profit for '25e, but there could be more. TP NOK 147 (152) – BUY.

HAUTO-NO HöEGH AUTOLINERS
02/06/24 February 6, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
WAWI-NO Wallenius Wilhe...

65% above cons, but we feel conservative

Order book at 36% of the current fleet is not enough. ABGSCe 16% and 34% above cons. EBITDA '24e-'25e. TP NOK 201 (199) – BUY.

WAWI-NO WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN ASA
02/06/24 February 6, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GCC-NO Gram Car Carrie...

Still a very attractive risk-reward

Order book at 36% is not enough. 100%, 94% and 66% of the fleet fixed for '24, '25 and '26. TP of NOK 289 (300) - P/NAV 0.79x.

GCC-NO GRAM CAR CARRIERS
02/06/24 February 6, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HAUTO-NO Höegh Auto...

Little news in trading update, "Red Sea effect" not possible to quanti...

Net rates of USD 82.1/CBM in December, down 2% from November. ~7% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'23e, ~5% upside to FY'24e at current levels. December's data as expected, "Red Sea effect" in Q1 not possible to quantify yet.

HAUTO-NO HöEGH AUTOLINERS
01/11/24 January 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HAUTO-NO Höegh Auto...

Trading update should imply upside to the share price today, but...

Net rates of USD 83.6/CBM in November, down 1.2% from October. ~9% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'23e, ~9% upside to FY'24e.

HAUTO-NO HöEGH AUTOLINERS
12/07/23 December 7, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HAUTO-NO Höegh Auto...

Another beat, 10% upside to cons Q4e EBITDA

Net rates of USD 84.5/CBM in October, up 5.0% from September. ~10% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'23e, 12% upside to FY'24e. Share price up 3-5% today

HAUTO-NO HöEGH AUTOLINERS
11/08/23 November 8, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GCC-NO Gram Car Carrie...

Steady performance, increasing dividends

Car carrier values up, resale and 5YR vessels up 1% and 8% m-o-m. 96%, 89% and 63% of the fleet fixed for '24, '25 and '26. TP of NOK 300 (258) - P/NAV 0.72x. BUY.

GCC-NO GRAM CAR CARRIERS
11/03/23 November 3, 2023 1 EN
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