European airlines closed up FY 2025 with a rather good feeling as Q4 2025 results showed good cost control capabilities which had been their main tailwind over the past 2-3 years. While the outlook for FY 2026 was to pursue the overall good performance, the war in Iran has created a different scenario. Demand continues to hold up driven by the premium segment and across all geographies. European airlines have added new capacity to the routes to and from Asia to gain market share due to Gulf airl...
European airlines closed up FY 2025 with a rather good feeling as Q4 2025 results showed good cost control capabilities which had been their main tailwind over the past 2-3 years. While the outlook for FY 2026 was to pursue the overall good performance, the war in Iran has created a different scenario. Demand continues to hold up driven by the premium segment and across all geographies. European airlines have added new capacity to the routes to and from Asia to gain market share due to Gulf airl...
Picard: sharp deleveraging in Q3 thanks to strong free cash flow despite slightly weaker sales|THOM Group: a more reassuring start to Q2, guidance maintained, strategic measures developed.|SoftBank Group will invest an additional $ 30bn in OpenAI|Airlines and Chemicals: potential impacts from the war in Iran|
Picard : solide diminution du levier au T3 grâce à un bon free cash-flow malgré un CA un peu faible|THOM : un début de T2 plus rassurant, guidances maintenues, mesures stratégiques développées|SoftBank va investir 30 mds USD supplémentaires dans OpenAI|Airlines and Chemicals: potential impacts from the war in Iran|
Constellium: very strong Q4 2025 results with the momentum continuing into H1 2026|Eramet publishes weak results for 2025 but takes radical measures to rapidly improve its financial structure, notably with a plan to strengthen its equity capital by € 500m|AF-KLM: Unit costs under control enabling good profitability levels|
Constellium: very strong Q4 2025 results with the momentum continuing into H1 2026|Eramet publie de faibles résultats 2025 mais prend des mesures radicales pour améliorer rapidement la structure financière, notamment avec un projet de renforcement des fonds propres de 500 m EUR|AF-KLM: Unit costs under control enabling good profitability levels|
Sur 2026, nous estimons que la dynamique sera plus favorable aux majors européennes tant sur le RASK (croissance plus modérée des capacités et meilleure orientation du réseau long-courrier en particulier transatlantique), que sur le CASK hors carburant aidé par des effets de base positifs. Nous relevons notre opinion à Surperformance sur Air France-KLM et Lufthansa et dégradons Ryanair en Neutre et Wizz Air en Sous-performance.
For 2026, we think that the trend will be more favourable to the European legacy carriers in terms of both RASK (more modest growth in capacity and a more positive trend on the long-haul network, particularly transatlantic) and CASK excluding fuel, aided by positive base effects. We have upgraded Air France-KLM and Lufthansa to Outperform, downgraded Ryanair to Neutral and Wizz Air to Underperform. A more favourable trend expected in 2026 for legacy carriers
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