reports
- Loic Morvan
LVMH Q1 worse than expected
Q1 sales momentum at LVMH was softer than anticipated with a 3% organic sales decline vs stable sales expected by the consensus. Q1 2025 faced a still-demanding comparison basis (+3% in Q1 2024 vs +1% over FY 2024). In view of the Q1 sales release, we revise our 2025-26 earnings downwards by 9% wit
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #66
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the correlation between robust financial markets and healthy US consumer
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #65
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation strategies by foreign
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
Luxury goods: The trend should gradually improve in 2025 after a chall...
After a poor 2024 vintage, we expect a gradual recovery during 2025, which will nevertheless remain a soft year as we anticipate an average sales increase of just 4% for our luxury groups sample (+3% excluding Hermès). Q1 is set to be challenging with a 1% average sales decline (-2% excluding Hermès
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #64
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at accelerating trends in European corporate earnings relative to those in t
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #62
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's trade war is negatively impacting US consumer sentiment. Happ
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #56
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how US tourism could drive European luxury sales, especially if Trump imp
- Loic Morvan
LVMH 2024 EBIT below expectations but an encouraging start to the year
As expected, LVMH' 2024 results were not a good vintage, both at the top line and profitability levels. FY sales were stable on the whole (+1% in Q4) while EBIT margin declined 340bp to 23.1% (cs:24.1%). Nevertheless, we expect 2025 to be better with a 4% organic sales increase. Buy reiterated with
- Loic Morvan
LVMH H2 profitability more under pressure than expected
Although we are maintaining our forecast for poor FY sales (-1% organically), we are more cautious on profitability in view of a greater negative FX impact than initially expected, especially for the Wines & Spirits division. We have cut our 2024-25 earnings by 3%. New PT at EUR770 vs EUR800 pr
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #48
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the annual Bain-Altagamma Luxury Goods study which expects a period of tur
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
LVMH: Q3 sales down 3%, a clear deceleration vs Q2 (+1%), mainly due t...
LVMH has reported poor Q3 sales down 3%, confirming the current deterioration in the luxury industry, especially in Mainland China. In the Fashion & Leather division, Q3 sales with the Chinese cluster were down MSD vs the HSD increase seen in H1. We cut our 2024-25 earnings by 4% implying a new
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #42
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the resolution of the ILA port strike which threatened the US holiday sho
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: beware of excessive optimism on China in the near term
Although most stocks in our luxury sample rebounded last week following the launch of a stimulus "bazooka" by the Chinese authorities, we expect no material improvement in China's consumption or household confidence in the near term. As such, we would not be surprised if the Chinese government were
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #41
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the endless reshuffling of European purchasing alliances among food retai
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: only a very slight rebound expected in H2
As expected, H1 was a poor vintage for Luxury groups. On average, our luxury groups sample achieved 1% organic sales growth, in line with Q1. Only Hermès, Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli enjoyed double-digit growth. Consequently, H1 profitability came under pressure. H2 is not expected to be much be
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
LVMH H1 EBIT misses expectations
LVMH reported poor H1 results yesterday. Although top line momentum was almost in line with market anticipations thanks to 2% organic growth indicating a degree of resilience in the current environment, EBIT was clearly below the consensus (EUR10.65bn vs EUR11.04bn), implying a 180bp margin erosion
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: H1 profitability under pressure
We turn more cautious on the sector as recent newsflows points to a deterioration of China's macro. H1 should prove to be challenging for the sector with Q2 growth expected to decelerate sequentially from +1% FX-n in Q2 to zero in Q2. With lower topline growth, Luxury groups will be under pressure
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #25
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on resilient US activity from the perspective of a healthy Logistics Mana
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
LVMH: Q1 might be the low point for F&LG growth
As anticipated, LVMH reported a quite poor Q1 2024 performance, with a 3% sales growth (at same FX), but at least in line with consensus expectations and with no dramatic trend. Furthermore, we remind investors that LVMH faced a fairly demanding comparison basis (sales were up 17% in Q1 23). We rei
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
As anticipated, LVMH set to report poor Q1 sales growth
As expected, LVMH is set to report muted Q1 2024 sales growth (+3% organic) in view of the more challenging environment. The Wines & Spirits division is like to be down sharply (due to both champagne and cognac) while the Fashion & Leather division should report a LSD sales increase. We mai
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