reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #48
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the annual Bain-Altagamma Luxury Goods study which expects a period of tur
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
LVMH: Q3 sales down 3%, a clear deceleration vs Q2 (+1%), mainly due t...
LVMH has reported poor Q3 sales down 3%, confirming the current deterioration in the luxury industry, especially in Mainland China. In the Fashion & Leather division, Q3 sales with the Chinese cluster were down MSD vs the HSD increase seen in H1. We cut our 2024-25 earnings by 4% implying a new
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #42
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the resolution of the ILA port strike which threatened the US holiday sho
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: beware of excessive optimism on China in the near term
Although most stocks in our luxury sample rebounded last week following the launch of a stimulus "bazooka" by the Chinese authorities, we expect no material improvement in China's consumption or household confidence in the near term. As such, we would not be surprised if the Chinese government were
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #41
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the endless reshuffling of European purchasing alliances among food retai
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: only a very slight rebound expected in H2
As expected, H1 was a poor vintage for Luxury groups. On average, our luxury groups sample achieved 1% organic sales growth, in line with Q1. Only Hermès, Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli enjoyed double-digit growth. Consequently, H1 profitability came under pressure. H2 is not expected to be much be
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
LVMH H1 EBIT misses expectations
LVMH reported poor H1 results yesterday. Although top line momentum was almost in line with market anticipations thanks to 2% organic growth indicating a degree of resilience in the current environment, EBIT was clearly below the consensus (EUR10.65bn vs EUR11.04bn), implying a 180bp margin erosion
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: H1 profitability under pressure
We turn more cautious on the sector as recent newsflows points to a deterioration of China's macro. H1 should prove to be challenging for the sector with Q2 growth expected to decelerate sequentially from +1% FX-n in Q2 to zero in Q2. With lower topline growth, Luxury groups will be under pressure
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #25
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on resilient US activity from the perspective of a healthy Logistics Mana
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
LVMH: Q1 might be the low point for F&LG growth
As anticipated, LVMH reported a quite poor Q1 2024 performance, with a 3% sales growth (at same FX), but at least in line with consensus expectations and with no dramatic trend. Furthermore, we remind investors that LVMH faced a fairly demanding comparison basis (sales were up 17% in Q1 23). We rei
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
As anticipated, LVMH set to report poor Q1 sales growth
As expected, LVMH is set to report muted Q1 2024 sales growth (+3% organic) in view of the more challenging environment. The Wines & Spirits division is like to be down sharply (due to both champagne and cognac) while the Fashion & Leather division should report a LSD sales increase. We mai
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Reassuring FY23 results despite a more challenging environment in H2
LVMH's FY23 results were encouraging at both the top-line level with 13% FY organic sales growth reflecting a slight acceleration in Q4 (+10%) vs Q3 (+9%), and EBIT. FY EBIT margin narrowed just 10bp to 26.5%, above the consensus (26%), thanks to tight cost control in H2. For 2024, we leave our sal
- Loic Morvan
Uncertainty over H2 profitability
Given the more challenging environment than initially expected, especially in Europe, we prefer to adopt a more conservative stance, particularly on profitability, as costs are not set to fall significantly. As such, we now expect a slight narrowing in profitability over FY23e versus stable previou
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