Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Strong UW results muted by softer financials

Stronger UW muted by financials; Adj. EPS down 3% for '24e, unchanged '25e-'26e; Cap. adj. P/E in '26e at 11.7x (5% below peers) and yield of ~21.3%

Underlying UW better, one-offs mute

Adj PTP beat 1% (cons/ABG) incl non-rec EUR 15m (Top); underl. UW are stronger; Group reported CR 83.8% vs ABG 83.7% and cons 82.7%; Cons 25e-26e (+1-2%) underl. UW; stock follow up 1-2%

Heads-up for Q3-report 6 November

Nordic non-life: Q3e – set to improve again

Margins to widen with Top synergies

Q3e: group CR of 83.7% and group adj PTP of EUR 464m. Adj. EPS '24e +2% and '25e-'26e -4% (mainly int. rate-driven). We argue that its UW skills deserve a premium valuation: BUY.

Transformation complete: >20% upside

A look into the Norwegian claims inflation

Motor frequency taking a breather: Property claims inflation to be determined by frequency: Gross premiums up 9.5% y-o-y vs. claims 8.9%

Insurance trip: 14 insurers in three days

High price increases in non-life = margin expansion; Attractive dividend levels to come from life units; BUY stability from Sampo/Tryg; earnings growth STB/GJF

Margin expansion and growth is a good combo

Underlying and reported UW in line, while financials beat. Adj. EPS up 1% for '25e-'26e, while '24e up by 7% from the beat. Cap. adj. P/E in '26e at 11x (15% discount to peers) and yield of ~23%.

Much better financials, UW just a tad

If P&C's underlying CR +5% vs ABG, and much better financials. Reported CR (If P&C) a tad better at 83.1% (fire in DK). Cons.24e (+2-4% amid financials), 25e-26e (+1%); stock just up

Heads-up for Q2 report 7 August

Nordic non-life: Q2e - Repricing to show effects

A more normal claims quarter should start to show the repricing. Expanding margins up avg. adj EPS '25e-'26e by ~1%. Prefer Sampo to Tryg and GJF (all BUYs); TOP (SELL)

Approaching the end of its transformation

Q2e: offer for Top, share buyback, premium growth & fire headwind. Adj. EPS '24e -1% (financials & associates), '26e -1% (Hastings). We continue to argue for a premium valuation for Sampo: BUY

Sampo Plc: Acquisition of Topdanmark's remaining shares is credit posi...

The transaction will strengthen Sampo's market position in the Nordics, unlock growth opportunities and enhance efficiencies.

Sampo with an all-share transaction for Topdanmark

CEO repeats its strong repricing message

Repeat its profitable growth, price and cost discipline. Weather effects of 7.2pp in Q1'24 give hope of improved 2H. No estimate changes, ~10% upside to TP of NOK 195, BUY.

A solid underwriter at an unwarranted discount

Underl. CR of 87%, in line with ABGSCe, rep. 3pp worse (weather). Adj EPS'24e-25e unchanged, '26e +3% on better underlying UW. Cap. adj. P/E'25e 12.3x (10% discount to peers) and yield of 25.9%.

Underlying CR inline, beat driven by financials

If P&C's underlying CR in line with ABG, much better financials. Reported CR (If P&C) weaker at 86.7% hit by tough Nordic weather. Cons.24e (+0-2% amid financials), 25e-26e intact; stock end up +1%.

Heads-up for Q1-report, 7 May