Non-life: Competition authority consider to look at the competition

The DCCA is out with report describing inefficient comp. Could be a drag for Tryg and ALMB despite the industry objections. ALMB drop looks attractive, but it could drag on for two more years.

Nordic non-life insurance – Q4 reporting wrap

UW improvements to last

Beat driven by UW as financials miss

Adj PTP +1%/+9% (ABG/cons) driven by UW as financials miss; DPS just soft, SBB likely to be announced in connection with AGM; Cons 25e-26e (+0-2%) underl. UW; stock follow up 1-2%

Heads-up for Q4-report, 6 February

Nordic non-life Q4 preview: positive R/R in GJF

At an unwarranted discount

Q4e: Sampo CR of 85% and adj. PTP of EUR 380m; Adj. EPS '24e -1% (Hastings) and '25e +3% (financials); A great franchise at an unwarranted discount: BUY

Stockholm CEO lunch

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Strong UW results muted by softer financials

Stronger UW muted by financials; Adj. EPS down 3% for '24e, unchanged '25e-'26e; Cap. adj. P/E in '26e at 11.7x (5% below peers) and yield of ~21.3%

Underlying UW better, one-offs mute

Adj PTP beat 1% (cons/ABG) incl non-rec EUR 15m (Top); underl. UW are stronger; Group reported CR 83.8% vs ABG 83.7% and cons 82.7%; Cons 25e-26e (+1-2%) underl. UW; stock follow up 1-2%

Heads-up for Q3-report 6 November

Nordic non-life: Q3e – set to improve again

Margins to widen with Top synergies

Q3e: group CR of 83.7% and group adj PTP of EUR 464m. Adj. EPS '24e +2% and '25e-'26e -4% (mainly int. rate-driven). We argue that its UW skills deserve a premium valuation: BUY.

Transformation complete: >20% upside

A look into the Norwegian claims inflation

Motor frequency taking a breather: Property claims inflation to be determined by frequency: Gross premiums up 9.5% y-o-y vs. claims 8.9%

Insurance trip: 14 insurers in three days

High price increases in non-life = margin expansion; Attractive dividend levels to come from life units; BUY stability from Sampo/Tryg; earnings growth STB/GJF

Margin expansion and growth is a good combo

Underlying and reported UW in line, while financials beat. Adj. EPS up 1% for '25e-'26e, while '24e up by 7% from the beat. Cap. adj. P/E in '26e at 11x (15% discount to peers) and yield of ~23%.

Much better financials, UW just a tad

If P&C's underlying CR +5% vs ABG, and much better financials. Reported CR (If P&C) a tad better at 83.1% (fire in DK). Cons.24e (+2-4% amid financials), 25e-26e (+1%); stock just up

Heads-up for Q2 report 7 August