Nordic non-life Q1e: Should manage the turmoil

Expect solid underwriting, again

Non-life: Competition authority consider to look at the competition

The DCCA is out with report describing inefficient comp. Could be a drag for Tryg and ALMB despite the industry objections. ALMB drop looks attractive, but it could drag on for two more years.

Nordic non-life insurance – Q4 reporting wrap

UW improvements to last

Beat driven by UW as financials miss

Adj PTP +1%/+9% (ABG/cons) driven by UW as financials miss; DPS just soft, SBB likely to be announced in connection with AGM; Cons 25e-26e (+0-2%) underl. UW; stock follow up 1-2%

Heads-up for Q4-report, 6 February

Sampo plc - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

Summary Marketline's Sampo plc Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Sampo plc - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments reports offer a...

Nordic non-life Q4 preview: positive R/R in GJF

At an unwarranted discount

Q4e: Sampo CR of 85% and adj. PTP of EUR 380m; Adj. EPS '24e -1% (Hastings) and '25e +3% (financials); A great franchise at an unwarranted discount: BUY

Stockholm CEO lunch

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Strong UW results muted by softer financials

Stronger UW muted by financials; Adj. EPS down 3% for '24e, unchanged '25e-'26e; Cap. adj. P/E in '26e at 11.7x (5% below peers) and yield of ~21.3%

Underlying UW better, one-offs mute

Adj PTP beat 1% (cons/ABG) incl non-rec EUR 15m (Top); underl. UW are stronger; Group reported CR 83.8% vs ABG 83.7% and cons 82.7%; Cons 25e-26e (+1-2%) underl. UW; stock follow up 1-2%

Heads-up for Q3-report 6 November

Nordic non-life: Q3e – set to improve again

Margins to widen with Top synergies

Q3e: group CR of 83.7% and group adj PTP of EUR 464m. Adj. EPS '24e +2% and '25e-'26e -4% (mainly int. rate-driven). We argue that its UW skills deserve a premium valuation: BUY.

Topdanmark (No_rec, TP: DKK) - Discontinuing coverage

Given Sampo’s pending acquisition of Topdanmark and its subsequent delisting, we have discontinued coverage. Our last published recommendation, target price, and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Consolidating forces

A benign quarter without major weather events should lead to strong YOY improvement in earnings across the Nordic non-life sector, helped by favourable financial markets and the ongoing momentum from multiple rounds of premium price rises. Industry consolidation continued with the acquisition of Topdanmark by Sampo, set to be completed by 18 October. The transaction should lead to increased consolidation, promoting rational market behaviour in Denmark. Based on a growing discount to peers, we hi...

Transformation complete: >20% upside