Transformation complete: >20% upside

A look into the Norwegian claims inflation

Motor frequency taking a breather: Property claims inflation to be determined by frequency: Gross premiums up 9.5% y-o-y vs. claims 8.9%

Insurance trip: 14 insurers in three days

High price increases in non-life = margin expansion; Attractive dividend levels to come from life units; BUY stability from Sampo/Tryg; earnings growth STB/GJF

Margin expansion and growth is a good combo

Underlying and reported UW in line, while financials beat. Adj. EPS up 1% for '25e-'26e, while '24e up by 7% from the beat. Cap. adj. P/E in '26e at 11x (15% discount to peers) and yield of ~23%.

Much better financials, UW just a tad

If P&C's underlying CR +5% vs ABG, and much better financials. Reported CR (If P&C) a tad better at 83.1% (fire in DK). Cons.24e (+2-4% amid financials), 25e-26e (+1%); stock just up

Heads-up for Q2 report 7 August

Sampo plc - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

Summary Marketline's Sampo plc Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Sampo plc - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments reports offer a...

Weaker underlying outlook

Q2: Weak underlying, but results saved by financials. Adj. EPS down by 4.7%, 1.6% and 2.6%, for '24-26e. Expect share to continue tracking Sampo.

Topdanmark (Hold, TP: DKK371.00) - Continued repricing focus

PTP was 19% higher in Q2 YOY as rebounding financial markets helped offset a soft underwriting result. High YOY insurance revenue growth was offset by a sizeable number of large claims and continued high motor-claims frequencies, for which the company continues to raise prices. We have made limited 2025–2026e EPS changes, and reiterate our HOLD. We have raised our target price to DKK371(366), in line with the bid from Sampo.

Financials saves weaker underlying

Adj PTP beat of 4-5% amid better financials, while UW hurt. Underlying CR 1.6-1.8pp worse (motor, fires & drought). Cons.est.rev. down 2-6% on guidance, stock linked to Sampo

Nordic non-life: Q2e - Repricing to show effects

A more normal claims quarter should start to show the repricing. Expanding margins up avg. adj EPS '25e-'26e by ~1%. Prefer Sampo to Tryg and GJF (all BUYs); TOP (SELL)

Fully valued

Q2e: easier comps vs. last few quarters, but Oona headwind remains. Adj. EPS trimmed by 6% and 3% for '24e-'25e (claims). Valuation premium has jumped with the Sampo offer: SELL

Approaching the end of its transformation

Q2e: offer for Top, share buyback, premium growth & fire headwind. Adj. EPS '24e -1% (financials & associates), '26e -1% (Hastings). We continue to argue for a premium valuation for Sampo: BUY

Sampo plc - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis

Summary Sampo plc - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Sampo plc (Sampo) is an insurance solutions provider. The company provides a range of property and casualty, and life insurance products and services to its customers. The company offers insurance products fo...

Seeing the effects of repricing

Warm weather in the quarter, albeit with periods of heavy rainfall, should support seasonally low claims, while we expect to see the results of the strong premium repricing since H2 2023. Stable interest rates in most markets and solid equity performance QOQ should further support Q2 earnings. Sampo is our Nordic non-life top pick, following its long-awaited bid for the remaining shares in Topdanmark.

Sampo Plc: Acquisition of Topdanmark's remaining shares is credit posi...

The transaction will strengthen Sampo's market position in the Nordics, unlock growth opportunities and enhance efficiencies.

Sampo with an all-share transaction for Topdanmark

CEO repeats its strong repricing message

Repeat its profitable growth, price and cost discipline. Weather effects of 7.2pp in Q1'24 give hope of improved 2H. No estimate changes, ~10% upside to TP of NOK 195, BUY.

A solid underwriter at an unwarranted discount

Underl. CR of 87%, in line with ABGSCe, rep. 3pp worse (weather). Adj EPS'24e-25e unchanged, '26e +3% on better underlying UW. Cap. adj. P/E'25e 12.3x (10% discount to peers) and yield of 25.9%.

Underlying CR inline, beat driven by financials

If P&C's underlying CR in line with ABG, much better financials. Reported CR (If P&C) weaker at 86.7% hit by tough Nordic weather. Cons.24e (+0-2% amid financials), 25e-26e intact; stock end up +1%.