Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Strong UW results muted by softer financials

Stronger UW muted by financials; Adj. EPS down 3% for '24e, unchanged '25e-'26e; Cap. adj. P/E in '26e at 11.7x (5% below peers) and yield of ~21.3%

Underlying UW better, one-offs mute

Adj PTP beat 1% (cons/ABG) incl non-rec EUR 15m (Top); underl. UW are stronger; Group reported CR 83.8% vs ABG 83.7% and cons 82.7%; Cons 25e-26e (+1-2%) underl. UW; stock follow up 1-2%

Heads-up for Q3-report 6 November

Nordic non-life: Q3e – set to improve again

Margins to widen with Top synergies

Q3e: group CR of 83.7% and group adj PTP of EUR 464m. Adj. EPS '24e +2% and '25e-'26e -4% (mainly int. rate-driven). We argue that its UW skills deserve a premium valuation: BUY.

Topdanmark (No_rec, TP: DKK) - Discontinuing coverage

Given Sampo’s pending acquisition of Topdanmark and its subsequent delisting, we have discontinued coverage. Our last published recommendation, target price, and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Consolidating forces

A benign quarter without major weather events should lead to strong YOY improvement in earnings across the Nordic non-life sector, helped by favourable financial markets and the ongoing momentum from multiple rounds of premium price rises. Industry consolidation continued with the acquisition of Topdanmark by Sampo, set to be completed by 18 October. The transaction should lead to increased consolidation, promoting rational market behaviour in Denmark. Based on a growing discount to peers, we hi...

Transformation complete: >20% upside

A look into the Norwegian claims inflation

Motor frequency taking a breather: Property claims inflation to be determined by frequency: Gross premiums up 9.5% y-o-y vs. claims 8.9%

Insurance trip: 14 insurers in three days

High price increases in non-life = margin expansion; Attractive dividend levels to come from life units; BUY stability from Sampo/Tryg; earnings growth STB/GJF

Margin expansion and growth is a good combo

Underlying and reported UW in line, while financials beat. Adj. EPS up 1% for '25e-'26e, while '24e up by 7% from the beat. Cap. adj. P/E in '26e at 11x (15% discount to peers) and yield of ~23%.

Much better financials, UW just a tad

If P&C's underlying CR +5% vs ABG, and much better financials. Reported CR (If P&C) a tad better at 83.1% (fire in DK). Cons.24e (+2-4% amid financials), 25e-26e (+1%); stock just up

Heads-up for Q2 report 7 August

Sampo plc - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

Summary Marketline's Sampo plc Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Sampo plc - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments reports offer a...

Weaker underlying outlook

Q2: Weak underlying, but results saved by financials. Adj. EPS down by 4.7%, 1.6% and 2.6%, for '24-26e. Expect share to continue tracking Sampo.

Topdanmark (Hold, TP: DKK371.00) - Continued repricing focus

PTP was 19% higher in Q2 YOY as rebounding financial markets helped offset a soft underwriting result. High YOY insurance revenue growth was offset by a sizeable number of large claims and continued high motor-claims frequencies, for which the company continues to raise prices. We have made limited 2025–2026e EPS changes, and reiterate our HOLD. We have raised our target price to DKK371(366), in line with the bid from Sampo.

Financials saves weaker underlying

Adj PTP beat of 4-5% amid better financials, while UW hurt. Underlying CR 1.6-1.8pp worse (motor, fires & drought). Cons.est.rev. down 2-6% on guidance, stock linked to Sampo

Nordic non-life: Q2e - Repricing to show effects

A more normal claims quarter should start to show the repricing. Expanding margins up avg. adj EPS '25e-'26e by ~1%. Prefer Sampo to Tryg and GJF (all BUYs); TOP (SELL)

Fully valued

Q2e: easier comps vs. last few quarters, but Oona headwind remains. Adj. EPS trimmed by 6% and 3% for '24e-'25e (claims). Valuation premium has jumped with the Sampo offer: SELL