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ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Improving the debt profile

Expect another stable quarter. New bonds at significantly lower spreads. Low multiples and low growth: HOLD.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Sweden is set for a comeback

Swedish economy set to outperform in 2025, with buoyant conditions for real estate. Tables have turned since January – more BUYs than SELLs.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Lack of negative triggers — up to HOLD

Q4 outlook on the soft side — CEPS down ~2%. Payout ratio >90% in 2024e-2026e. Low growth, but lack of negative triggers. Up to HOLD (Sell).

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Saved by the bell – now what?

Lower risks of both rights issues and covenant breaches more than reflected after the recent rally. P/CEPS of ~18x with limited earnings growth; four downgrades.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Time for another dividend cut

Broadly in line with cons for Q4'23e. No deleveraging with a payout ratio of >95%, rational way forward is a div cut - SELL.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

In need of a reboot

Resilient cash flow with no value-added activities. Leverage too high and unsustainable DPS. ABGSC initiates coverage with a SELL recommendation, TP SEK 125.

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