Nordic non-life: Q1e - frequency & price hikes

Cold start, storms and snow set the stage for higher frequency claims. Underl. claims improved from last year's repricing and changed terms. Negative risk/reward in both Tryg and Top from UW & financials.

Too cheap to ignore

Adj. pre-tax profit to grow by 11% y-o-y in Q1'24e. Adj. EPS raised by 3-6% for 2024e-26e. TP raised to SEK 85 (82), reiterate BUY.

Market leader at a discount

AUM portfolio drives ATH earnings in Q4. Adj. EPS raised by 1% for 2024-25e. TP raised to SEK 82 (78), reiterate BUY.

AUM portfolio behind Q4 beat

Strong valuation support with attractive yield

Tough comps, expect adj. pre-tax profit to fall by 5% y-o-y. We cut adj. EPS by 2-4% for 2024-25e. BUY reiterated with tweaked TP of SEK 78 (80).