Benelux Morning Notes

Aperam: In-line 1Q24 EBITDA, FCF marked by WC build, 2Q24 guidance below consensus. Ayvens: Taking the brakes off. BAM: Not the best start to the year. bpost: 1Q24 in line with consensus but beat vs INGF, no outlook yet. Brunel International: good set of 1Q24 results – 5% beat on EBIT, comforting trends. B&S Group: Preview - should be a non-event. DEME Group: Preview - should be a non-event. D'Ieteren: Febiac April registrations flat YoY, VW brands up 8.4%. GBL: NAV per share in ...

Allianz : Solid operating profit expected in Q1 2024

>We are forecasting Q1 2024 operating profit of € 3.9bn - Allianz is due to report its Q1 2024 results on 15 May. We are forecasting operating profit of € 3,886m (+4.2%), in line with the consensus (€ 3,897m, +4.4%e). Q1 operating profit should, in our view, confirm the fact that Allianz should report a full-year operating profit at the upper end of the guidance range (€ 14.8bn, +/- € 1bn, bearing in mind that 1/4 of the average point of the target range is equivalent...

Fraport : Q1 impacted by strikes, rest of 2024 expected to improve ste...

>Moderate start of the year in Frankfurt after traffic impacted by strikes… - Frankfurt airport handled 12.5m passengers during the first quarter of 2024, up +10.4% and a recovery to just 84.7% vs the 2019 level (March 82.4%; February 84.6%, January 87.4%).The first quarter was impacted by several days of strikes and bad weather conditions that affected airport operations and led to the cancellations of flights, according to the company, these resulted in the loss of ...

Allianz : Un RO solide attendu au T1 2024

>Nous prévoyons un RO de 3.9 Md€ au T1 2024 - Allianz publiera son RN du T1 2024 le 15 mai prochain. Nous prévoyons un RO de 3 886 M€ (+4.2%), en ligne avec le consensus (3 897 M€, +4.4%e). Le T1 devrait ainsi, selon nous, confirmer la capacité d’Allianz de publier un RO en année pleine 2024 dans le haut de la fourchette cible (14.8 Md€, +/- 1 Md€, sachant que 1/4 du point moyen de la fourchette cible équivaudrait à 3.7 Md€ de RO/trimestre en moyenne sur 2024). Pour r...

Vonovia/Many positives on different fronts/BUY

We confirm our positive stance on Vonovia. FY24 has started well with a satisfying number of disposals and, more importantly, at prices substantially in line with latest valuations. Organic growth guidance has been marginally revised upwards and regulation uncertainties are removed at least until end-2025. The value decline continues to lose steam, and this is key for the LTV management and to start thinking about what comes next. We change our estimates only marginally and confirm our BUY ratin...

Organic growth forecasts raised post Q1

EBIT forecasts revised by -1% to +5%. Organic growth for 2024e raised to 5.9% (5.4%). BUY - TP 185.

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 05/02/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 02/05/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 05/02/2024

We are removing GALP from our ODDO BHF European Large Caps list. The stock has chalked up a performance of +31.3% since its inclusion in the list on 20 March. Our analyst is adopting today a Neutral recommendation (vs Outperform) on the stock. - ...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 02/05/2024

Nous sortons GALP de notre liste ODDO BHF European Large Caps. La valeur a réalisé une performance de +31,3% depuis son entrée le 20 mars dernier. Notre analyste adopte ce jour une opinion Neutre (vs Surperformance) sur la valeur qui a atteint notre objectif de cours. - ...

ISS A/S : Broadly in line Q1 2024 with confirmation of FY guidance, no...

>Q1 2024 trading update broadly in line with expectations, DT is still weighing - ISS reported Q1 2024 sales at DKK 20,090m (+4.2% reported), i.e. 1% below the consensus expectations (DKK 20,241m), mostly due to a negative FX impact (-2.5% reported, consensus -1.7%). Organic growth came out at 6.0%, a touch above the consensus at 5.6% (ODDO BHF 6.2%e). This was supported by price increases as well as volume growth while the contribution from net contract wins and abo...

ISS A/S : Broadly in line Q1 2024 with confirmation of FY guidance, no...

>Q1 2024 trading update broadly in line with expectations, DT is still weighing - ISS reported Q1 2024 sales at DKK 20,090m (+4.2% reported), i.e. 1% below the consensus expectations (DKK 20,241m), mostly due to a negative FX impact (-2.5% reported, consensus -1.7%). Organic growth came out at 6.0%, a touch above the consensus at 5.6% (ODDO BHF 6.2%e). This was supported by price increases as well as volume growth while the contribution from net contract wins and abo...

Volkswagen (pref) : A tough start to the year, unlikely to improve sen...

>Q1 even tougher than expected but with no consequence for the year - Although VW had expected a tough Q1, earnings were nonetheless 7% below estimates (EBIT) with an operating margin of 6.1% (consensus at 6.5%) and negative FCF of close to € 3bn (vs consensus at -€ 921m). The causes were known, but had an even more negative impact than anticipated, mainly with the supply difficulties at Audi (operating margin for Progressive unit at just 3.4% vs consensus 7.7%) and, ...

Good organic growth driven by robust porfolio revenues

Mercedes-Benz AG : Continued erosion and risks still underestimated

>Continued erosion of Cars fundamentals - MBG reported subdued Q1 results Tuesday morning, below expectations (adjusted EBIT 5% below consensus, -10% for the Cars division), see First Take. The group reported a marked erosion of its earnings and margins in the Cars division (adjusted EBIT € 2.3bn, -44% y-o-y, margin 9.0%, -580bp y-o-y), partly offset by a still very solid performance from Vans (adjusted EBIT € 0.8bn, +11% y-o-y, margin 16.3%, -20bp y-o-y). The group ...

Volkswagen (pref) : Un début d’année difficile, pas de nature à amélio...

>Un T1 encore plus difficile qu’anticipé mais sans conséquence sur l’année - Si VW avait bien prévenu d’un T1 difficile, les résultats sont néanmoins ressortis inférieurs de 7% aux attentes (EBIT) avec une MOP de 6.1% (consensus à 6.5%) et un FCF négatif de près de 3 Md€ (vs consensus à -921 M€). Les causes étaient connues mais ont eu un impact encore plus négatif qu’anticipé avec, essentiellement, les difficultés d’approvisionnement chez Audi (MOP Progressive à seule...

Mercedes-Benz AG : Poursuite de l’érosion et des risques encore sous-a...

>Poursuite de l’érosion des fondamentaux de Cars - MBG a publié hier matin des résultats T1 mitigés et inférieurs aux attentes (EBIT ajusté 5% en dessous du css, -10% pour la division Cars), voir First Take. Le groupe a fait état d’une forte érosion de ses résultats et de ses marges dans la division Cars (EBIT ajusté 2,3 Md€, -44% y-o-y, marge 9,0%, -580 pb y-o-y, partiellement compensée par une performance toujours très solide dans les Vans (EBIT ajusté 0,8 Md€, +11%...