reports
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/06/2024
Our baseline scenario materialised last night: Donald Trump seems to be on course to win the US presidential election, and the choice of the electorate is unlikely to be challenged. He could end up with a majority in both houses of Congress. US equities will be the first to benefit from this development. In European equities, the biggest winners will be Energy, Media, Metals, Construction & Materials, Financial Services and Insurance. More at risk, however, are the Utilities, Spirits,...
V1S ARKEMA
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
PUM PUMA SE
EN BOUYGUES SA
VNA VONOVIA SE
ORSTED ORSTED
FRE FRESENIUS SE & CO. KGAA
NEX NEXANS SA
HEN3 HENKEL AG & CO. KGAA PREF
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
EVK EVONIK INDUSTRIES AG
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
COLO B COLOPLAST A/S CLASS B
RACE FERRARI NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
NEOEN NEOEN S.A.
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
CTPNV CTP NV
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 06/11/2024
Notre scénario central s’est concrétisé dans la nuit : Donald Trump remporte la présidentielle américaine, et le choix des électeurs ne devrait pas être contesté. Il pourrait disposer d’une majorité dans les deux assemblées. Les actions américaines en seront les premières bénéficiaires. Sur les actions européennes, les secteurs les plus gagnants seront l’Energie, les Médias, les Métaux, Construction & Materials, Financial Services, Insurance. Sont en revanche plus à risque Utilities, ...
V1S ARKEMA
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
PUM PUMA SE
EN BOUYGUES SA
VNA VONOVIA SE
ORSTED ORSTED
FRE FRESENIUS SE & CO. KGAA
NEX NEXANS SA
HEN3 HENKEL AG & CO. KGAA PREF
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
EVK EVONIK INDUSTRIES AG
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
COLO B COLOPLAST A/S CLASS B
RACE FERRARI NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
NEOEN NEOEN S.A.
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
CTPNV CTP NV
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Uniper : No surprises for 2024 and the outlook remains vague
>Guidance confirmed for 2024 but we are lowering our estimates - Most of the favourable base effects are now behind us and Q4 should show a continuation in the normalisation of earnings. In particular, the group should see a readjustment of the real value of its positions on the carbon market that should trigger a € 140m decline in earnings over the quarter, while last year this readjustment in real value led to a € 140m increase in earnings. The cumulative effect of ...
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Uniper : Pas de surprise sur 2024 et les perspectives restent imprécis...
>Guidance confirmée pour 2024 mais nous abaissons nos estimations - L’essentiel des effets de base favorables sont maintenant derrières nous et le T4 va se traduire par une poursuite de la normalisation des résultats. En particulier, le groupe va reconnaitre un réajustement de la juste valeur de ses positions sur le marché du carbone qui devrait entrainer une baisse de résultat de 140 M€ sur le trimestre alors que l’an dernier ce réajustement en juste valeur avait con...
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/05/2024
European equity markets weakened in October following multiple disappointments across the earnings season. The impending US election, the outcome of which is highly uncertain according to the polls, may also have prompted some traders to adopt a cautious stance. Sovereign long rates rose sharply, particularly in the US, on the back of macro indicators likely to provide arguments to the most hawkish of central bankers. All eyes are now on the November 5 elections and their repercussion...
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 05/11/2024
Les marchés actions européens ont fléchi en octobre après les nombreuses déceptions sur la saison des résultats. L’approche de l’élection US, très incertaine selon les sondages, pourrait également avoir poussé à la prudence certains opérateurs. Les taux longs souverains ont nettement remonté, en particulier aux Etats-Unis, sur la base d’indicateurs macro susceptibles de donner des arguments aux plus faucons des banquiers centraux. Tous les yeux sont désormais rivés sur le scrutin du 5...
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Uniper : 9M results in line with expectations
>A performance in line with forecasts - Uniper this morning released its detailed 9M figures. Adjusted EBITDA came in at € 2,176m (vs € 6,086m in 9M 2023) in line with our forecast at € 2,142m. Adjusted EBIT decreased to € 1,718m from € 5,489m in 9M 2023 vs € 1,722m expected by ODDO BHF. By division, Green Generation outpaced our forecast and came in at € 738m (+25% y-o-y vs our forecast at € 680m) mainly due to the increased hydro volumes in Sweden and Germany which ...
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Uniper : 9M results in line with expectations
>A performance in line with forecasts - Uniper this morning released its detailed 9M figures. Adjusted EBITDA came in at € 2,176m (vs € 6,086m in 9M 2023) in line with our forecast at € 2,142m. Adjusted EBIT decreased to € 1,718m from € 5,489m in 9M 2023 vs € 1,722m expected by ODDO BHF. By division, Green Generation outpaced our forecast and came in at € 738m (+25% y-o-y vs our forecast at € 680m) mainly due to the increased hydro volumes in Sweden and Germany which ...
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO : A gradual weaning
‘Soft landing’... the term is in vogue and we think it aptly describes the current situation in the energy market. After a period of “excess profits”, the fundamentals are back in favour and prompt us to revise down our estimates for energy prices. - Alongside renewable energies, pockets of sustainable value creation are emerging for players capable of capitalising on the structural growth in volatility on the electricity markets but which are nonetheless trading at a discount In ...
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
EOAN E.ON SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
RWE RWE AG
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
REP REPSOL SA
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
IBE IBERDROLA SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
SHEL SHELL PLC
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO : Un sevrage dans la douceur
“Soft landing”… le terme est à la mode et nous pensons qu’il caractérise bien la situation du marché de l’énergie aujourd’hui. Après une parenthèse de « surprofits », les fondamentaux reprennent leur droit et nous conduisent à réviser en baisse nos hypothèses de prix de l’énergie. A côté du renouvelable, des poches pérennes de création de valeur apparaissent pour les acteurs capables de profiter de la croissance structurelle de la volatilité des marchés électriques et qui souffre...
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
EOAN E.ON SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
RWE RWE AG
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
REP REPSOL SA
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
IBE IBERDROLA SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
SHEL SHELL PLC
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Bruno Cavalier
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/09/2024
At the 15th edition of our Corporate Conference, hosted jointly by ODDO BHF and Commerzbank, the presenting corporates were still focused on the macroeconomic environment and the related impact on their sectors. Regionally, the US remains resilient at good levels, while China and Europe are lagging behind. Germany in particular is seen as sluggish. Hence, we observed a mixed picture across the 89 companies presenting at our conference. We were positively surprised by statements from a...
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
EOAN E.ON SE
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
SAN SANOFI
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
MONC MONCLER SPA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Bruno Cavalier
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 09/09/2024
At the 15th edition of our Corporate Conference, hosted jointly by ODDO BHF and Commerzbank, the presenting corporates were still focused on the macroeconomic environment and the related impact on their sectors. Regionally, the US remains resilient at good levels, while China and Europe are lagging behind. Germany in particular is seen as sluggish. Hence, we observed a mixed picture across the 89 companies presenting at our conference. We were positively surprised by statements from a...
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
EOAN E.ON SE
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
SAN SANOFI
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
MONC MONCLER SPA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
UN0 UNIPER SE
PUIG PUIG BRANDS
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO : Curtailments in Brazil, limited impact on Iberdrola, Enel and E...
>Recap of the announcement made by Votalia on 20 August - On 20 August, Voltalia announced that the Brazilian transmission network operator was imposing a sizeable curtailment on some parts of the network which will impact group 2024 EBITDA to the tune of € 40m, if these measures to reduce inflow continue over the next few months and if the group is not compensated financially. The curtailment on production volumes for Voltalia in the northeast portion of the network ...
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
EOAN E.ON SE
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO : Les effacements au Brésil, peu d’impacts sur Iberdrola, Enel et...
>Rappel des faits annoncés par Voltalia le 20 août dernier - Le 20 août dernier, Voltalia a annoncé que l’opérateur du réseau de transmission brésilien impose actuellement des écrêtements prononcés dans certaines parties du réseau qui impacterait l’EBITDA 2024 du groupe à hauteur de 40 M€, si ces mesures de réduction d’injection se prolongeaient au cours des prochains mois et si le groupe n’était pas compensé financièrement. Le volume d’écrêtement de la production de ...
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
EOAN E.ON SE
ELE ENDESA S.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Benoit Valleaux
- Benoit Valleaux
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Uniper : Une bonne publication mais les perspectives restent mal orien...
>Une publication de bonne qualité sur le S1 2024 - Uniper a publié hier ses résultats détaillés du S1 après les résultats préliminaires publiés le 31 juillet (voir notre Flash du 1er août 2024 : « Guidance relevée, mais le principal point à retenir est ailleurs »). L'EBITDA ajusté a diminué à 1 743 M€ contre 4 113 M€ YoY et 1 615 M€ attendus. L'EBIT ajusté s'est établi à 1 439 M€ contre 3 712 M€ YoY contre 1 315 M€ attendus et le NI ajusté est ressorti en ligne avec n...
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
Uniper : A strong publication but the outlook remains on a negative tr...
>A good quality publication for H1 2024 - Uniper reported yesterday its detailed H1 earnings after the preliminary results published on 31 July (see our flash of 1 August 2024: ‘Guidance lifted, but the main takeaway lies elsewhere’). Adjusted EBITDA was down at € 1,743m vs € 4,113m y-o-y and € 1,615m expected. Adjusted EBIT stood at € 1,439m vs € 3,712m y-o-y vs € 1,315m forecast, while adjusted NI was in line with our forecasts at € 1,113m vs € 2,487m y-o-y. All div...
- Julian Dobrovolschi
- Julian Dobrovolschi
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