Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report

Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...

Flash note: Vectura and Skyepharma announce merger

Vectura and Skyepharma (SKP) have announced they have reached a merger agreement; under the terms of the deal SKP shareholders will be entitled to receive 2.7977 new Vectura shares for every SKP share, valuing the company at £441.3m or 410.15p per share. Our last published valuation (A shining start to 2016) of SKP is 422p/share. The rationale for the merger is to combine the complementary inhalation businesses and create an industry-leading respiratory speciality business to accelerate growth ...

Update: A shining start to 2016

Skyepharma ended 2015 with a flurry of positive news. The partnering deal with Mundipharma for SKP-2076, Pacira’s announcement of a resolution achieved with the FDA on Exparel coupled with an encouraging FY15 pre-close update marks a good start for 2016. Skyepharma has entered into a feasibility and option agreement for SKP-2076 with Mundipharma, the partner of choice in our view, and the timely announcement could ensure seamless development once SKP-2076 feasibility studies complete by mid-20...

Update: SKP-2075/SKP-2076: future stars aligning

We recently attended Skyepharma’s capital markets day (CMD). Flutiform continues to post strong revenues, contributing directly to margins and underpinning strong growth in cash from operations. Post the CMD we have higher conviction for the potential mid- to long-term contributions from the respiratory assets in development, in particular the ground-breaking SKP-2075 for COPD/smoking asthma with headline Phase II data due in 2017 and SKP 2076, the triple therapy for asthma, which has potentia...

Outlook: Reassuringly positive operating performance

Skyepharma continues to maintain strong progress across the business. Revenue growth is driven by the products launched since 2012, with encouraging contributions from flutiform and Exparel. The improving operational leverage in the flutiform supply chain suggests continuing margin expansion though to 2018. We have reviewed our model, raising our forecasts for FY16 and beyond, and consequently our valuation increases by 11.5% from £354m or 338p a share to £395m or 377p a share.

Update: Trading update shows momentum maintained

Skyepharma’s Q215 trading update shows progress is continuing as expected. flutiform is growing in-market sales as forecast, with further roll-outs into new, albeit smaller, markets. Royalties from the other key drivers are also on track, with rising contributions from the GSK Ellipta inhaled products, as well as solid Solaraze sales in the US. Pacira’s Exparel is still expected to trigger the $8m sales milestone this year. Our valuation, currently still based on a DCF model, is £354m or 33...

Update: A spring in the step as confidence grows

Skyepharma's Q115 trading update shows progress is being maintained, highlighting the strength of the underlying business now that the bonds and other costly loans have been repaid. Demand is growing for flutiform and sales of Solaraze in the US were significantly ahead of expectations. The GSK products continued to build momentum, while Exparel is still expected to trigger the $8m sales milestone this year. We have raised our valuation slightly from £342m or 327p per share, to £354m or 338p a...

Update: Operating business continues to perform

Skyepharma's trading update highlights the importance of the recently launched products, including flutiform, Exparel and the new generation of GSK inhalers. Net R&D investment for FY15 has been pencilled in for £10m, suggesting valid opportunities to build the pipeline have been identified. The increase in spend of £5m is balanced by the stronger than expected cash generation in FY14. The near-term changes in royalty timings and R&D spend are offset by a higher long-term contribution in our m...

Institutional Comment: Daily Comment

Update: flutiform continues to impress

Following the successful April 2014 £112m capital raise and early repayment of the bonds, Skyepharma’s investment case now rests on the success of recent product launches. H114 results highlight the improving operational performance, especially the encouraging uptake for flutiform. The strengthened balance sheet enables a renewed emphasis on pipeline replenishment, with the licensing of a COPD technology platform notably promising. We raise our valuation from 260p a share to 326p.