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Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 13/12/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Reflections on Welchau - Three intervals in the Reifling formation (1324 m-1340 m, 1346 m-1351 m and 1358 m-1382 m MD) were perforated but only limited inflow was determined. No fluid could reach the surface after the well was shut in. Sampling of the well indicated only completion brine (not reservoir fluid) and fine solid particles of unknown origin. ADX will analyse the particl...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Kunooz water wet

• The Kunooz-1 well yielded only water and traces of hydrocarbons on test. • We now assume that shareholders will accept the take-over offer by Roc Oil at SEK58.70 per share. • We have set our target price at that level. Valuation We have taken out the value of Block 58 from our valuation. Our new ReNAV is SEK58 per share, which is very close to the acquisition price offered by Roc Oil.

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 06/12/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.08 per share: US$100 mm guarantees highlight the value of the South Africa energy trading business - British International Investment (BII) and GuarantCo have announced a US$100 mm guarantee finance facility for Etana Energy, the South African electricity trading platform which is owned and was co-founded by Chariot (49%) and H1 Holdings (51%). Etana is one of the few companies holding an electric...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 29/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of NOK51 per share: Water inflow from a small interval in Welchau deeper formation. Continuing well test up hole – Two intervals in the Steinalm formation (1452.5 m-1463.5 m and 1474.5 m-1480 m MD) were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate hig...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 22/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Portion of deeper target at Welchau flows water on test – Two intervals (total of ~16 m) in the Steinalm formation. were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate highlights the high permeability of the natural fractures, the absence of hydrocarbons is disappoi...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.70 per share: Approvals to start well testing at Welchau received. Rig and test equipment mobilized – All necessary approvals have been received to commence flow testing operations on the Welchau-1 discovery well for the period from 30 October 2024 until 31 March 2025. A workover rig has been mobilised to the Welchau-1 drill site with flow testing due to commence during the second half of Novem...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Well test results at Kunooz-1 weeks away

• 3Q24 production of 7,717 bbl/d had already been reported. • While the company moved from an overlift position of 2,357 bbl at the end of 2Q24 to a large underlift position of 28,993 bbl at the end of 3Q24, the 3Q24 operating cash flow of US$14.5 mm (before working capital) was very close to 2Q24 (US$15.4 mm). • The key near term newsflow is the results of the flow tests of the Ara/Birba and Bua formations at Kunooz-1 on Block-58. A positive result would be very material to Tethys and could lea...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.80 per share: Another positive operating update – The work-overs of two new existing wells have added 441 boe/d after a combined 20 m of previously unperforated reservoir pay was accessed. The first well is producing 410 boe/d. It was previously shut-in. The second well is producing an extra 31 boe/d (+65%) and continues to clean-up. With a total cost of 100 wells on Condor’s fields includ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Encouraging results at Kunooz-1

• Large and extensive natural fractures have been encountered over 500 m (gross thickness) in the Birba and Buah formations at the Kunooz-1 well, resulting in very high permeabilities. The matrix porosity is low. • The presence of these large fractures could support significant volumes of fluids or gas in the formation. • Due to the fractures, 80 mbbl of drilling fluids were lost in the formation and no cuttings could be recovered. The nature of the formation fluid (gas, oil or water) is theref...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 11/10/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price US$26 per share: Downtime and blockades continue to impact production. All eyes on Argentina – 3Q24 production was 33,215 boe/d with production in Colombia still impacted by downtime and blockades (we expected 34.6 mboe/d). Production at Llanos-34 continues to decline. Production in Brazil remains shut-in. GeoPark had highlighted these downside risks in August. This was partially offset by (1) high prod...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 20/09/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX CN)C; Target price A$0.75 per share: Production boost at Anshof in October – The ANS-2A sidetrack well has encountered a 6.5 m net vertical oil column in high quality Eocene-aged sandstone reservoir. The reservoir quality encountered at ANS-2A is consistent with ANS-2 (porosity and permeability ~20% higher than at ANS-3). The oil-water contact was encountered very close to the top of the water wet reservoir encountered ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Take-over offer at SEK58.70 per share

• Tethys has received a cash offer from Roc Oil to acquire the company at SEK58.70 per share. • The offer is recommended by the independent bid committee of the board of directors of Tethys. • Shareholders representing 16.86% of the outstanding shares have irrevocably undertaken to accept the offer. • The offer represents a premium of almost 90% to Tethys’ share price on the day prior to the announcement and has a 90% acceptance condition. • The acceptance period for the offer is expected to ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY -136/09/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price £0.40 per share: Anchois-3 encounters gas in the appraisal targets but one of the exploration target is dry – The Anchois-3 well has 3 objectives. While the initial pilot hole encountered the targeted reservoirs at the Anchois Footwall prospect, they were interpreted as water wet. Our ReNAV for this prospect was £0.03/sh. The well was sidetracked in the B sands which are the main appraisal targets. Prel...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/08/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price £0.45 per share: Commencing drilling operations at high impact well in Morocco – Drilling operations have commenced on the Anchois East well (now named Anchois-3). The well has three objectives. An initial pilot hole will be drilled to evaluate the potential of the Anchois Footwall prospect, located in an undrilled fault block to the east of the main field with a 2U Prospective Resource estimate of 170 ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09/08/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price NOK52 per share: All eyes on EG – 1H24 production was 9,168 bbl/d. EG and Gabon production had already been disclosed. 1H24 production in Tunisia was 1,670 bbl/d (we forecasted 1,760 bbl/d) given subdued activities. In EG, the first infill well encountered the primary and secondary reservoirs in line with expectations. Production is expected to begin early September. The second infill well is expec...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Strong financials. All eyes on strategic re...

• 2Q24 production of 7,688 bbl/d had been previously reported. • 2Q24 production was negatively impacted by flooding and production is expected to return to normal during 3Q24. • In light of the flooding, FY24 production guidance has been trimmed from 7.8-8.6 mbbl/d to 7.8-8.2 mbbl/d. 2H24 production is expected to be higher than in 1H24. • The FY24 capex guidance has been reduced from US$90-94 mm to US$77 mm. This reflects (1) the second exploration well at Block 58 and (2) the exploration well...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 12/07/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ PetroTal (PTAL LN/CN)C; Target price of £1.50 per share: Unrestricted cash position increased by >30% during the last quarter – 2Q24 production of 18,290 bbl/d was very near our forecasts of 18.5 mbbl/d but marginally below the company target of ~19 mbbl/d. A brief river blockade impacted production but production in June was 20,555 bbl/d. All regulatory approvals for the pilot to sell 100 mbbl of production through Ecuador have now be...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/06/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C: target price of £0.50 per share: Key step towards developing future gas to industry business onshore Morocco – Chariot has signed Heads of Terms with Vivo Energy for the future offtake from the Loukos onshore licence where natural gas has been encountered at Dartois. Up to 3 mmcf/d would be initially sold to the CNG midstream business under a long-term gas sales agreement. Vivo intends to design, fund, construct and...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 10/05/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$26 per share: More favourable offtake contract in Colombia – GeoPark has signe da new offtake contract with Vitol for a minimum of 20 mbbl/d. The agreement improves GeoPark’s price realizations by US$0.15/bbl vs the current agreement. As part of this transaction, GeoPark will obtain immediate access to committed funding from Vitol for up to US$300 mm, with an option to increase by another US$200 m...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 19/04/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; target price of SEK100 per share: Increasing further the size of the prize/Considering Algeria – The South Lahan area on Block 58 is estimated to hold 55-523 mmbl prospective resources (P90-P10 case) with a mean case of 251.8 mmbbl prospective resources across six prospects in the Ara Carbonate. Combined with the previously disclosed prospective resources of the Fahd area in the north-eastern part of Block 58, Te...

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