On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #34

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at underperformance by European, and especially French, equity indexe

INFORME DIARIO 21 JUNIO (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 06/20/2024

Thanks to its business model focused on the growth potential of long-term savings (AM/WM, insurance) in Italy, Intesa Sanpaolo is in a win/win position vis-à-vis the expected interest rate normalisation. Combined with its strong balance sheet and operating efficiency, this should bolster the credibility of the group’s capital plan and ultimately that of its attractive shareholder returns policy which is still not properly priced in. We reiterate our Outperform rating on the stock, wit...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 20/06/2024

Grâce à un business model axé sur le potentiel de croissance de l’épargne LT (AM/WM, assurance) en Italie, IntesaSP jouit d’une position ‘win/win’ pour aborder la phase de normalisation sur les taux d’intérêt. Couplé à sa solidité bilancielle et son efficience opérationnelle, cela devrait permettre au groupe de crédibiliser sa trajectoire de capital et in fine une politique de retour à l’actionnaire attractive encore insuffisamment valorisée. Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformanc...

Danone : Reiteration of the guidance ahead of the CMD today with focus...

>Press release ahead of the CMD today - At the very start of the CMD today in Amsterdam, the company issued a press release saying the day will be focused on sharing its mid-term strategy and value creation journey for the 2025-2028 period. The press release says that Danone’s next chapter will build on the fundamentals that the company has reestablished over the last 2 years: science and innovation, operational and executional discipline, and proactive portfolio mana...

SGS : H1 preview – Currencies will weigh on the margin in H1 – The eff...

>Resilient organic growth but fall in the margin in H1 - SGS will report its H1 results on Wednesday 24 July before trading. We expect them to show a continuation of the top line trend seen in Q1. For Q2, we leave our organic growth estimate unchanged at 7.6%e, i.e. 7.4% in H1. We expect an FX effect of -4.4%e in Q2, i.e. -6.5%e in H1 and -3.6%e over the full year. Growth should be driven mainly by the Industry&Environment (33% of revenues) and Natural reso...

Danone : Reiteration of the guidance ahead of the CMD today with focus...

>Press release ahead of the CMD today - At the very start of the CMD today in Amsterdam, the company issued a press release saying the day will be focused on sharing its mid-term strategy and value creation journey for the 2025-2028 period. The press release says that Danone’s next chapter will build on the fundamentals that the company has reestablished over the last 2 years: science and innovation, operational and executional discipline, and proactive portfolio mana...

ArcelorMittal : Q2 preview: waiting for better days…

>Global sector climate broadly in the doldrums - The market climate has continued to deteriorate in recent weeks, dashing recovery hopes that had emerged at the start of the year. China prices are at their lowest since 2020 with local output still too abundant and demand driven down by unending contraction in real estate. This weakness is flowing through to most markets worldwide also on a negative trend, particularly Brazil and India, due to their low trade defences...

DANONE: PRINCIPALES ANUNCIOS DEL INVESTOR DAY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL...

Destacamos a continuación los principales anuncios del Investor Day que está celebrando hoy la compañía:

SGS : Preview S1 – Les devises pèseront sur la marge du S1 – Les effet...

>Croissance organique résiliente mais marge en baisse au S1 - SGS publiera ses résultats S1 le mercredi 24/07 avant Bourse. Nous attendons qu’ils se situent dans le prolongement des tendances constatées au T1 sur la topline. Pour le T2, nous maintenons notre estimation de croissance organique inchangée à 7.6%e i.e 7.4% sur le S1. Nous tablons sur un effet FX de -4.4%e au T2 i.e -6.5%e au S1 et -3.6%e sur l’année. La croissance devrait être tirée principalem...

Diageo : Marché US toujours sous pression au S2 23/24e

>Surperformance maintenue avec un OC ajusté à 3 100 p vs 3 400 p - Nous révisons nos estimations en amont de la publication des résultats FY 23/24e le 30 juillet prochain intégrant une détérioration du marché US au S2 23/24e, et une dépréciation des devises émergentes qui pèsent sur le ROC. Nous attendons désormais une baisse des BPA de -17% vs -10% auparavant et -15% pour le css. Nous ajustons notre OC à 3 100 vs 3 400p auparavant suer la base de ces révisions de BPA...

Diageo : US market still under pressure in H2 2023-24e

>Outperform rating maintained, target price adjusted to 3,100p vs 3,400p - We have revised our estimates ahead of the FY 2023-24e results on 30 July to reflect a deterioration in the US market in H2 23/24e and worsening emerging market currency trends which undermines EBIT. We now expect an EPS decline of -17% vs -10% before and -15% for the css. We have adjusted our target price to 3,100 vs 3,400p previously based on this revision. We however maintain our Outperform ...

ArcelorMittal : Preview T2 : en attendant des jours meilleurs…

>Contexte sectoriel mondial globalement déprimé - Le contexte de marché a continué de se dégrader ces dernières semaines, douchant les espoirs de reprise nés en début d’année. Les prix chinois sont au plus bas depuis 2020 avec une production locale encore trop abondante et une demande tirée par le bas par l’ajustement sans fin du secteur immobilier. Cette faiblesse se répercute sur la plupart des marchés mondiaux également orientés à la baisse, en particulier le Brés...

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #33

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a new look at the latest rumors around Shein London IPO. Happy reading!