reports
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
Markets were calmer last week as investors continue to look towards potential rate cuts in the US in September. Chair Jerome Powell at his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, 23 August, sent strong signals that the Fed is ready to cut key rates. “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear". Markets now price up to 100bp in US key rates cut till the end of the year and a further 125bp of cuts next year. We view the macro backdrop as supportive for EM credit, while new sup...
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
PUMA PUMA ENERGY ZAMBIA PLC
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
103M SASOL LIMITED
QNBFB QNB FINANSBANK A.S.
TSKB TURKIYE SINAI KALKINMA BANKASI AS
TTRAK TURK TRAKTOR VE ZIRAAT MAKINELERI A.S.
VAKBN TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI TURK ANONIM ORTAKLIGI
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE N.V.
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
QNBFB QNB FINANSBANK A.S.
TSKB TURKIYE SINAI KALKINMA BANKASI AS
VAKBN TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI TURK ANONIM ORTAKLIGI
ZRGYO ZIRAAT GAYRIMENKUL YATIRIM ORTAKLIGI AS
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
Some signs of cooling economic data out of the US, and the start of DM rate-cutting cycles has offered some optimism for EM assets, with the grind tighter in credit spreads continuing as seen for much of this year. We expect the benign environment to offer further opportunities for new issuance, while spread levels look fairly tight.
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly and bank sector update
While key central bank meetings passed this week without any major upset, the short-term outlook for EM is likely to be driven by global risk factors such as US banking system concerns and the debt ceiling. Spread widening could open up value given expectations for a more supportive medium-term backdrop.
- Egor Fedorov
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/Sisecam, Garanti, TSKB
Garanti (-/B2/B+) reported net income of TL13,060m and pre-provision income of TL29,936m for FY21, up 104.5% YoY and 45.0% YoY, respectively. In 4Q21, Garanti had net income of TL3,988m and pre-provision income of TL12,708m, up 9.7% QoQ and 93.5% QoQ, respectively. Our view Garanti remains solid in the Turkish bank context and we are comfortable with the bank's front-loaded maturities. TSKB (-/B3/B+) reported net profit of TL1,089m in FY21 and TL315m in 4Q21, up 48.6% YoY and 6.5% QoQ, respectiv...
- Egor Fedorov
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/Coca-Cola Icecek, TSKB, Yapi Kredi
Coca-Cola Icecek AS (-/B2/BBB-; Net Debt/ EBITDA: 0.41x) reported 3Q/9M21 financial results on Wednesday, 3 November (link). Coca-Cola Icecek reported strong 36% YoY revenue growth in 3Q21, 16.6% EBITDA growth in 3Q21, while positive FCF increased by 30% YoY. Revenues in Turkey increased by 34% YoY driven by strong sales growth (+15% YoY) and (+16% YoY growth of average revenue per unit. Net Debt/EBITDA was stable at 0.41x vs 0.40x at end-6M21. Our key concern across non-commodity sectors is h...
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
Turkish Bank Sector Update/Better from here?
The first quarter earnings season brought mixed results for the leading Turkish banks, as we had anticipated. For the moment, we retain our outlook for the full year of 2021 as a less expansionary but still satisfactory year for the top Turkish banks. On their part, the banks are also sticking to their outlooks provided earlier this year for the moment (we provide a summary of the outlooks for the top-4 private banks for your reference below). However, we expect to revisit our full-year 2021 out...
Moody's announces completion of a periodic review of ratings of Turkiy...
Announcement of Periodic Review: Moody's announces completion of a periodic review of ratings of Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S. Global Credit Research- 11 Mar 2021. Stockholm, March 11, 2021-- Moody's Investors Service has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S. and other ratings that are associated with the same analytical unit.
- Egor Fedorov
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
- Trieu Pham
EM Credit Spark/Sovereign and corporate weekly comment
A new month brought a fresh wind into EM credit, with the JPM EMBI Global Diversified having tightened by 7bp and delivering a 0.3% total return this week (as of yesterday's close). We have gone tighter in spreads every day this week, with major low beta names 9-14bp tighter. They are outperformed by the major higher beta BRAZIL (-24bp), TURKEY (-27bp) and SOAF (-35bp) and frontier EM (with most 25-40bp tighter). Secondary markets were also helped by the lack of sovereign primary market activity...
- Egor Fedorov
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
- Trieu Pham
EM Credit Spark/TSKB, MMK, Gazprom, Metinvest, DME Airport
Gazprom (BBB-/Baa2/BBB) reported record high gas exports to countries outside of USSR in January of 19.4bcm (+45% YoY), according to Bloomberg, quoting the company's emailed statement. According to Gazprom, Germany's demand for Russian gas grew by 32% YoY, Turkey's demand grew by 21% YoY, while Italy's consumption more than tripled. Supply to China has not been disclosed but it is mentioned that it was 2.9% higher than minimal contracted volumes. Gazprom's total gas production added 6.4% YoY and...
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
Turkish banking sector update/A mixed bag for 2021
We believe that 2021 holds both promise and challenges for the Turkish banking sector. On the positive side, we anticipate further economic recovery and more conventional macro and sector policies for the coming year. In terms of risks, we expect an inevitable crystallisation of some of the issues which have been accumulating during the current year and are masked in part by various forbearance measures which are due to roll off at the end of 2020. The interplay of these multidirectional factors...
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