reports
- Francesca Ferragina
CTP/Impressive growth and profitability at an interesting valuation, B...
CTP offers strong growth and profitability at an attractive valuation. The stock trades at a 10.4% discount to Net Tangible Assets (NTA) per share, vs the peer group average at a 2.4% discount, WDP (€24.7, Buy) at a 17.9% premium and Montea (€76.5, Hold) at a 5.0% premium. CTP is delivering strong results quarter after quarter. The 12.0% 2024-26F EPS CAGR and 9.7% NTA growth let us be confident of our BUY rating. We fine-tune our estimates and raise our TP to €19.
- ING Helpdesk
- Jesse Norcross
Real Estate bonds - Supply and Demand/Real Estate primary showing sign...
Real estate primary markets have had a relatively strong start to the year. In the first month and a half of 2024, €-denominated supply from real estate issuers has topped €2.3bn, an increase of around +18% compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, last year's € issuance was largely dominated by higher quality, US-based issuers (ie, Prologis). This trend seems to have changed in recent months, as we have seen more European issuers issuing in the € bond market. This trend may be set to ...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Francesca Ferragina
- Javier Campos Unda
Benelux Real Estate update/Different environment, new opportunities
We enter 2024 cautiously optimistic on the real estate sector on the back of the rates outlook and appealing valuations. We are positive on companies that have easy access to capital as this could be a good time to be ambitious and speed up growth with acquisitive deals. For companies with high LTV (and trading at an NTA discount) we expect an accentuated effort on disposals with the aim of being ‘investment neutral' where possible, ahead of taking any potentially painful equity decisions. The c...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aalberts: Organic growth in line with expectations. AMG: 3Q23 EBITDA miss and guidance cut, 2024F guidance now c.US$200m. ArcelorMittal: 3Q23 EBITDA slightly above consensus. Azelis: 3Q23 EBITA solid, continued macro headwinds, modest downside to consensus. Basic-Fit: CMD this afternoon; highlights. CTP: Healthy dynamics continue. Euronext: Beats and raises. KBC: 3Q beat but more headwinds, notably if a 2nd Belgian State Bond comes in Dec. Kinepolis: Hollywood back to business wi...
- Jesse Norcross
Real Estate – EUR bonds total return scenario analysis/Assessing total...
In this report, we analyse total return potentials for EUR-denominated real estate bonds of issuers in our coverage. This analysis is issuer- and fundamentals-agnostic, and we do not make any recommendations or take a view on any of the top/bottom performing bonds. We simply show which securities could outperform or underperform in different spread scenarios, all else being equal.
COV COVIVIO SA
GFC GECINA SA
VNA VONOVIA SE
A2JH5S UNIBAIL-RODAMCO SE
ICAD ICADE SA
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
CTP CENTRAL PETROLEUM
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
AT1 AROUNDTOWN SA
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP
AKELIUS RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AB CLASS D
BALD B SAGAX AB
FASTIGHETS AB BALDER
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aperam: 3Q23 Adj. EBITDA guided down to €15-20m, c.14% impact on FY consensus ASM: Remains an ING Benelux Favourite, scaling success ASR: Remains in ING Benelux Favourites list - galloping momentum Azelis: Added to ING Benelux Favourites list - looking beyond 2023F ‘reset' year Basic-Fit: Added to ING Benelux Favourites, share price weakness an opportunity bpost: preliminary compliance review outcome less negative than expected Brunel: Remains an ING Benelux Favourite; Onwards and upwards CTP: S...
- ING Helpdesk
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- ING Helpdesk
- Francesca Ferragina
CTP/Strong and getting stronger/BUY
1H results showed a solid operational performance, with 26.8% top-line growth with a very satisfying 7.5% LFL driven by indexation and renegotiations. Portfolio valuation is sound and no further write offs are expected. Guidance is reiterated – during 2H we should see a stronger top line combined with a further streamlining of the cost base partially offset by higher financial charges. LTV is at 45.9% and is seen at c.45% by year-end: a high level, however considering the extremely profitable de...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
Coffee, Croissants & Credit/CTP and LEG Immobilien
Real Estate: CTP reports good numbers supported by positive operating drivers. LEG Immobilien's 1H23 results demonstrate further pressure on credit metrics. What's going on in EUR credit: - Marginal widening in spreads, ranging between 1bp-2bp on the day. - Leisure widening by 7bp, while Corporate Hybrids tightening by 1bp. - Overall weekly tightening persists across the majority of sectors. What's going on in USD credit: - Autos, Consumers, and Telecom are the only underperformers toda...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Corbion: Reality bites. CTP: Sound operational momentum continues. Fastned: Preview 1H23. ForFarmers: Another half, another decline. KBC: 2Q results; NII +6% QoQ, costs only +1% tell the story. SBM Offshore: Tail end of Covid-19, supply constraints visible. TKH Group: Solid 1H and positive 2H outlook expected. Results Calendar
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Basic-Fit: Highlights from corporate roadshow. CTP: Positive message on YoC and valuations. D'Ieteren: Belron US peer Boyd reports strong start to the year, ahead of consensus. Euronav: Good 1Q23 but watch 2Q23. Montea: Good (and unsurprising) 1Q23 results. Recticel: Peer Rockwool 1Q23 results. SBM Offshore: 8th hull, but for which oil firm? Staffing: French data: March revenue data softens as pricing slips; April outlook stable. Results Calendar
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Belysse: Big miss on EBITDA, profitability in Europe dips further. Corbion: Cash burner. CTP: Good and unsurprising 2023 guidance, LTV at 45% our main focus. Elia: Good results, cautious outlook. Kinepolis: Steady improvement in French cinema attendance in February. Recticel: Prices of insulation products expected to increase in Belgium in 2023F. Universal Music Group: In line EBITDA, much better FCF, solid margin expansion in 2023
- Francesca Ferragina
Benelux Real Estate update/Less quantity. Focus on profit and balance ...
We update our estimates for all real estate companies under our coverage to include more cautious assumptions on yields and growth; we reset our valuations on the back of higher WACC (now at c.5% on average). There has been a paradigm shift over recent months on the back of the new interest rate environment combined with high inflation and recession risk. This sets new standards when it comes to indebtedness. While our analysis points to some equity needs, financing costs are well optimised on a...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aalberts: Upbeat trading update. ABN AMRO: 3Q22 Results. Aedifica: Good Q3, guidance raised. Ageas: 3Q in line, good underlying Asia overshadowed by deteriorating UK Non-Life. Agfa-Gevaert: Weak 3Q22 calls for material downgrade to consensus. Ahold Delhaize: Impressive results and raised EPS guidance. CTP: Strong operational trends continue. Montea: c.€100m ABB. Staffing: French data - Sept vol and rev trend strong, Oct modestly slower but resilient
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