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Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Weekly news, topics & discussion

In the past week, we published an update on Equinor; we expect lowered renewables targets and capex guidance at the upcoming Capital Markets Update to be overshadowed by limited will or capacity for attractive shareholder distributions beyond 2025. We see significant downside risk for the stock to trade in line with peers on 2026e total shareholder yields. In other news, Panoro Energy released its Q3 results; we consider the report fairly neutral. Finally, production at Johan Sverdrup is back to...

ABGSC Energy Research ... (+7)
  • ABGSC Energy Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Energy Research ... (+7)
  • ABGSC Energy Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Stian Wibstad

Energy Morning - 20 November 2024

Brent spot: USD 73.0bbl, up 0.5/bbl from last OSE close.OSX: 77.3, down 1% since last OSE close.Borr (B): receives another suspension – not unexpected but a small negative.DNO (B): "good chance that a discovery has been made" on Falstaff, positive.PEN (B) Q3: Production now above 13kboe/d.API estim

 PRESS RELEASE

Equinor ASA: Buy-back of shares to share programmes for employees

Equinor ASA: Buy-back of shares to share programmes for employees Please see below information about transactions made under the buy-back programme for Equinor ASA (OSE:EQNR, NYSE:EQNR) for shares to be used in the share-based incentive programmes for employees and management. Date on which the buy-back programme was announced: 7 February 2024. The duration of the buy-back programme: 15 February 2024 to 15 January 2025. Size of the buy-back programme: The total purchase amount under the programme is NOK 1,774,000,000 and the maximum shares to be acquired is 16,800,000 shares, of which up...

 PRESS RELEASE

Equinor ASA: Kjøp av aksjer til aksjeprogram for ansatte

Equinor ASA: Kjøp av aksjer til aksjeprogram for ansatte Nedenfor følger informasjon om transaksjoner knyttet til tilbakekjøpsprogrammet for Equinor ASA (OSE:EQNR, NYSE:EQNR) til bruk i aksjebaserte insentivprogrammer for ansatte og ledelse. Dato for annonsering av tilbakekjøpsprogrammet: 7. februar 2024. Varighet av tilbakekjøpsprogrammet: 15. februar 2024 til 15. januar 2025. Størrelse av tilbakekjøpsprogrammet: Samlet kjøpesum i tilbakekjøpsprogrammet er inntil NOK 1.774.000.000 og det maksimale antall aksjer som kan erverves er 16.800.000, hvorav opp til 7.400.000 aksjer kan erverves...

Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

ABGSC Energy Research ... (+7)
  • ABGSC Energy Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Stian Wibstad
 PRESS RELEASE

Equinor ASA: Share buy-back

Equinor ASA: Share buy-back Please see below information about transactions made under the fourth tranche of the 2024 share buy-back programme for Equinor ASA (OSE:EQNR, NYSE:EQNR, CEUX:EQNRO, TQEX:EQNRO). Date on which the fourth tranche of the 2024 programme was announced: 24 October 2024. The duration of the fourth tranche of the 2024 programme: 25 October to no later than 31 January 2025. Further information on the tranche can be found in the stock market announcement on its commencement dated 24 October 2024, available here: From 11 November until 15 November 2024, Equinor ASA has...

 PRESS RELEASE

Equinor ASA: Tilbakekjøp av egne aksjer

Equinor ASA: Tilbakekjøp av egne aksjer Nedenfor følger informasjon om transaksjoner foretatt under fjerde transje av Equinor ASAs (OSE:EQNR, NYSE:EQNR, CEUX:EQNRO, TQEX:EQNRO) tilbakekjøpsprogram for 2024. Dato for når fjerde transje av 2024-programmet ble annonsert: 24. oktober 2024. Varigheten til fjerde transje av 2024-programmet: 25. oktober til senest 31. januar 2025. Ytterligere informasjon om transjen kan finnes i børsmelding om dens oppstart datert 24. oktober 2024, tilgjengelig her: Fra 11. november til 15. november 2024, har Equinor ASA kjøpt tilbake totalt 1.500.000 egne ak...

 PRESS RELEASE

Equinor ASA: Ex. dividend second quarter 2024 today - Oslo Børs

Equinor ASA: Ex. dividend second quarter 2024 today - Oslo Børs The shares in Equinor ASA (OSE: EQNR; NYSE: EQNR) will as from today be traded on Oslo Børs exclusive the second quarter 2024 cash dividend as detailed below. Ex. date: 18 November 2024 Ordinary cash dividend amount: 0.35 Extraordinary cash dividend amount: 0.35 Announced currency: USD This information is published in accordance with the requirements of the Continuing Obligations and is subject to the disclosure requirements pursuant to Section 5-12 of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act.

 PRESS RELEASE

Equinor ASA: Eks. utbytte andre kvartal 2024 i dag - Oslo Børs

Equinor ASA: Eks. utbytte andre kvartal 2024 i dag - Oslo Børs Aksjene i Equinor ASA (OSE: EQNR; NYSE: EQNR) vil fra og med i dag handles på Oslo Børs eksklusiv kontantutbytte for andre kvartal 2024 slik det fremgår under. Ex-dato: 18. November 2024 Ordinært utbyttebeløp: 0,35 Ekstraordinært utbyttebeløp: 0,35 Annonsert valuta: USD Denne informasjonen offentliggjøres i henhold til kravene i Løpende forpliktelser og er informasjonspliktig etter verdipapirhandelloven §5-12.

Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Equinor (Sell, TP: NOK200.00) - Running out of energy

We expect lowered renewables targets and capex guidance at its Q4 results and Capital Markets Update to be overshadowed by limited will or capacity for attractive shareholder distributions beyond 2025, with a soft production outlook and still-rising capex weighing on FCF. Based on having to fund buybacks from net debt from 2026e, we see significant downside risk for Equinor shares to trade in line with peers on 2026e total shareholder yields. We have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) and cut our target ...

Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Ahmed Ben Salem

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/15/2024

Swiss-based Accelleron was formed from the spin-off of ABB’s highly profitable turbocharger division in 2022. We view the share as a promising investment on 1/ market leadership in an attractive niche, 2/ about ~40% ROCE, 3/ conversion of ~80% of EBITDA into cash, leading to fast deleveraging, and a solid base for shareholder remuneration (75% pay out), and 4/ strong long-term visibility linked to a ~75% service share, the bulk of which is recurring. Despite an already strong stock pe...

Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Thijs Berkelder

ODDO : IEA report– a surplus and easing of geopolitical tensions pushi...

>Slowdown in demand confirmed for 2025 - The IEA has just published its monthly report in which it has marginally lifted its demand growth estimates by 60 kb/d to +920 kb/d for 2024 but maintains unchanged its 2025 estimate at +1 Mb/d. This level compares with +1.2 Mb/d on average over 2000-2019 and a record of +2 Mb/d in 2023. This slowdown can be explained by the economic slowdown and the deployment of renewable energies. Chinese demand has slowed sharply for th...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Water disposal infrastructure operational. High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil produ...

Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Thijs Berkelder

ODDO : Rapport AIE –Surplus et accalmie géopolitique pèsent sur les pr...

>Le ralentissement de la demande se confirme en 2025 - L’AIE vient de publier son rapport mensuel et révise légèrement à la hausse ses estimations de croissance de la demande de 60 kb/j à +920 kb/j pour 2024 mais les maintient inchangées à +1 Mb/j pour 2025. Ce niveau se compare à +1.2 Mb/j en moyenne en 2000-2019 et un record de +2 Mb/j en 2023. Ce ralentissement s’explique par le ralentissement économique et le déploiement des énergies renouvelables. La demande ...

Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

US shale: limited revisions and colour on 2025 activity levels

Our Q3 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4–5% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~2% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. Limited colour was provided on 2025 activity levels and associated capex, which we will know more about in the Q4 results season. For Q3, our universe marginally underspent its cash flow, albeit with net debt continuing to build QOQ a...

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