reports
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy | Energy Shock Playbook
Energy shock scenario – The prolonged Middle East conflict has tightened the oil market, while elevating shipping and insurance risk premia. Brent has moved decisively above $100/bbl amid conflict-related disruption to production and tanker movements. The risk is acute because the Strait of Hormuz is a structural bottleneck for global energy flows, with oil flows through the strait accounting for c20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Against this backdrop, we frame the potential implicat...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Credibility reset, core earnings power still intact
Profit warning to reset 2025e EBITDA to c€750mn – Metlen issued a profit warning last week, cutting its 2025 EBITDA outlook by c25% (to €750mn) reflecting cost overruns in its M Power Projects (MPP) division alongside timing slippage in closing 3 asset rotation transactions. On the MPP side, management flagged unanticipated cost overruns and schedule delays in select projects, with the Protos project acting as the initial catalyst, followed by the identification of additional overruns during the...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Credibility reset, core earnings power still intact
Profit warning to reset 2025e EBITDA to c€750mn – Metlen issued a profit warning last week, cutting its 2025 EBITDA outlook by c25% (to €750mn) reflecting cost overruns in its M Power Projects (MPP) division alongside timing slippage in closing 3 asset rotation transactions. On the MPP side, management flagged unanticipated cost overruns and schedule delays in select projects, with the Protos project acting as the initial catalyst, followed by the identification of additional overruns during the...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
- Thaleia Makedou
Greek Equity Strategy – 2026 outlook | Less beta, more selectivity
Fundamentals taking over – Greek equities delivered an exceptional performance in 2025, emerging as one of the strongest markets globally, with the ASE General Index up c50%. This marked the 4th consecutive year of outperformance vs the Euro Stoxx 600, a streak not witnessed in the past two decades. The magnitude of the 2025 rally inevitably sets a high base heading into 2026 (especially since the ASE is already up c6% ytd). As a result, we believe the market will transition from a beta-driven p...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Forged for higher returns; Buy, top pick
New Metals pillars reshape the investment case… – Metlen’s mid-term roadmap marks a decisive evolution in its business model, with 3 new Metals subsegments—Circular Metals, Critical Metals and Defense—set to redefine its growth mix. Collectively, these new activities are targeted to add c€520m of incremental EBITDA, or >50% of the uplift toward mgt’s €1.9-2.1bn medium-term goal. These platforms carry exceptionally high return metrics (ROIC 30-70%) and complement the existing aluminium value cha...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Forged for higher returns; Buy, top pick
New Metals pillars reshape the investment case… – Metlen’s mid-term roadmap marks a decisive evolution in its business model, with 3 new Metals subsegments—Circular Metals, Critical Metals and Defense—set to redefine its growth mix. Collectively, these new activities are targeted to add c€520m of incremental EBITDA, or >50% of the uplift toward mgt’s €1.9-2.1bn medium-term goal. These platforms carry exceptionally high return metrics (ROIC 30-70%) and complement the existing aluminium value cha...
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