The Capital Goods Data Miner – December 2024

The Capital Goods Data Miner – November 2024

SKF AB: 1 director

A director at SKF AB bought 7,000 shares at 204.900SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 62/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showin...

Q3 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/31/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 31/10/2024

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SKF (Buy, TP: SEK256.00) - Proof is in the performance

Q3 adj. EBIT was somewhat above our estimate and consensus, and despite a tough market and ongoing structural changes, the margin was a strong 11.9%. The full-year adj. EBIT guidance was lowered (broadly in line with our expectations), meaning our estimate is largely unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price slightly to SEK256 (255).

SKF : Margin resilience at cycle trough, proof of the group’s recent t...

>Q3 2024: margin growth despite contraction in business - On Wednesday morning, SKF published Q3 2024 results above expectations in terms of adjusted EBIT. Sales were down organically by -4.4% (vs css at -2.9%), with the price/mix effect remaining positive. The two divisions were down by -4.6% and -4% respectively for the Industrial and Automotive divisions.The adjusted EBIT margin was up 40bp y-o-y to 11.9% (vs css at 11.4%), an excellent performance given ...

SKF : La résilience des marges en bas de cycle, une preuve de la trans...

>T3 2024 : hausse de la marge malgré le recul de l’activité - SKF a publié, mercredi matin, des résultats T3 2024 au-dessus des attentes sur l’EBIT ajusté. Le CA était en recul organique de 4.4% (vs css à -2.9%) avec un effet prix/mix toujours positif. Les deux divisions étaient en recul de respectivement 4.6% et 4% pour Industrial et Automotive.La marge d’EBIT ajusté était en hausse de 40 pb yoy à 11.9% (vs css à 11.4%), une excellente performance compte te...

Q3 added credibility to improvement story

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 30/10/2024

Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/30/2024

The outcome of the US presidential election hangs in the balance, but the momentum seems to be with Donald Trump since the beginning of October: the candidate is now in the lead in six of the seven swing states, has just overtaken Kamala Harris in the national vote while 63% of punters are tipping him to win. We recap in the present note on the European stocks to play or avoid in the event of Donald Trump's victory and have also listed European stocks with a production base in the US,...

SKF : Guidance revised down but the margin remains solid

>Q3 2024: -4.4% organic decline in sales and margin up 40bp to 11.9% - This morning, SKF published Q3 2024 results that fell short of expectations for sales at SEK 23.7bn (consensus at SEK 24.2bn), down -4.4% organic (consensus at -2.9%). This decline resulted from negative volumes at the two divisions, with a -4.6% decline in sales for industrial and -4% in automotive. As expected, the group indicated a marked slowdown in demand (notably at the end of the quarter) in...

SKF : La guidance est révisée à la baisse mais la marge est très solid...

>T3 2024 : recul organique du CA de 4.4% et marge en hausse de 40 pb à 11.9% - SKF a publié ce matin des résultats T3 2024 en dessous des attentes au niveau du chiffre d’affaires qui atteint 23.7 MdSEK (consensus à 24.2 MdSEK), en recul organique de 4.4% (consensus à -2.9%). Ce recul embarque des volumes négatifs dans les deux divisions avec un recul du CA de 4.6% pour Industrial et de 4% pour Automotive. Comme attendu, le groupe indique un ralentissement marqué de la...

Better margins offset continued volume pressure

Heads-up for report 30 October

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/17/2024

We measured the impact of the contribution from Michel Barnier’s exceptional tax on 88 stocks exposed to France. Some 17 of them would experience a (negative) impact on their EPS of more than 4% on average over 2024 and 2025: LDC (-8.3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7.9%), ADP (-7.9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6.9%), Derichebourg (-6.3%), Hermès (-5.6%), Safran (-5.6%), Bouygues (-5.6%), M6 (-5.2%), Thales (-5%), TF1 (-4.9%), Nexans (-4.9%), Vinci (-4.7%), Compagnie des Alpes (...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 17/10/2024

Nous avons mesuré l’impact de la contribution exceptionnelle Barnier sur 88 valeurs exposées à la France. 17 d’entre elles auraient un impact (négatif) sur leurs BPA de plus de 4% en moyenne sur 2024 et 2025 : LDC (-8,3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7,9%) ADP (-7,9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6,9%), Derichebourg (-6,3%), Hermès (-5,6%), Safran (-5,6%), Bouygues (-5,6%), M6 (-5,2%), Thalès (-5%), TF1 (-4,9%), Nexans (-4,9%), Vinci (-4,7%), Compagnie des Alpes (-4,4%), FDJ (-4%). - ...

SKF : Q3 preview: the risks to the guidance appear to be priced in

>Q3 2024: a slight organic decline in sales (-1.1%) and an adjusted EBIT margin of 11.7% - For Q3 2024, we expect sales to decline -1.1% on an organic basis (consensus at -3%), including a price effect of +1.1% and a volume effect of -2.2%. Management expects Q3 sales to be stable on an organic basis.For the Industrial division, we forecast a slight organic increase (1%) in Q3. As a reminder, Q3 2023 was the first quarter i/ of destocking at some OEMs (agricultur...

SKF : Preview T3 : les risques sur la guidance nous semblent intégrés

>T3 2024 : CA en léger recul organique (-1.1%) et marge d’EBIT ajusté de 11.7% - Pour le T3 2024, nous anticipons un recul organique du CA de 1.1% (css à -3%), incluant +1.1% d’effet prix/mix et -2.2% pour les volumes. Le groupe vise pour le T3 un CA stable en organique.Pour la division Industrial, nous anticipons une légère croissance organique (1%) lors du T3. Pour rappel, le T3 2023 était le premier trimestre i/ de la phase de déstockage chez certains OEM (agr...