The current context heralds a new period of uncertainty, but this will not undermine the growth cycle for utilities, marked by price normalisation, accelerating demand and the increasing complexity of the electricity system, due to the intermittency of renewables, congestion and the need for flexibility. In this context, selectivity is key, between players seeking profitable growth internationally and those waiting on their domestic market. We maintain our sector hierarchy in favour of earnings ...
Le contexte actuel ouvre une nouvelle période d’incertitude mais qui ne remettra pas en cause le cycle de croissance des Utilities, marqué par la normalisation des prix, l’accélération de la demande et la complexification accrue du système électrique, en raison de l’intermittence des renouvelables, des congestions et du besoin de flexibilité. Dans ce contexte, la sélectivité est déterminante, entre les acteurs qui cherchent la croissance rentable à l’international et ceux qui patientent sur leur...
We are upgrading our recommendation on REN to Outperform after the recent positive developments regarding the proposed remuneration for the next regulatory period in Electricity Transmission (6.43% effective rate of return vs current 5.5%) and the removal of the Special Tax on natural gas (€ 10m annual impact) and other favourable tax effects, which will materially improve REN’s normalised cash conversion rate (from 20% of EBITDA to c.40%). We raise our TP to € 3.8 (+40%: DCF, 9.7x implied EV/ E...
The fifth ODDO BHF Iberian Forum was held virtually, gathering 62 Iberian issuers and close to 200 institutional investors, making it one of the largest dedicated Iberian conferences of the year. The event generated 47 feedbacks, 6 target price revisions (including 4 downgrades), and a rating downgrade for Ence. The main topics of discussion were the impact of US tariffs and a weak USD on industrial companies, concerns about final demand in Europe and the US, and the sustainability of Spain’s ec...
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